Decision Making in Basketball
I have played and loved the sport of basketball since I was born, and I have been lucky enough to play for some great coaches. My coaches taught me how to play the game ‘the right way’ and make smart decisions with the ball. For basketball junkies and players who have learned the game, it is easy to recognize what is the correct action (dribble, pass, or shoot) in any given circumstance. However, sometimes the ‘right play’ results in a poor outcome. For those who know basketball, they understand it was the right play and they would make the exact same play again if given the same situation. However, for those who did not learn the game the same way, a good outcome indicates a good play and a bad outcome indicates a bad play. The game of basketball, like many sports, is an up and down game in which there are good and bad stretches. One thing that I have struggled to convey to my peers who don’t know basketball the way I do is the significance of making a good play versus a bad play, regardless of the outcome. There are times that a players makes a bad play (or bad decision) that results in a good outcome, or vice versa, a good play (smart decision) that results in a bad outcome. I have finally come across a paper that conveys the significance of the smart decision over the bad decision, regardless of outcome, in terms that most everyone can understand:
http://www.justinmrao.com/goldman_rao_sloan.pdf
In this paper, the author applies Mixed Strategy Nash Equilibrium concepts to the decisions on the offensives side of a basketball game. The author explains that each possession has various dynamics including shooting the ball, continuing the possession, and having a teammate shoot the ball. The best and smart decision, or as I have learned to be ‘the right play,’ is the equilibrium of the given scenario. If the marginal shot value exceeds the continuation value of the possession, it makes sense to shoot and vice versa. The most efficient players and teams manage to find this equilibrium more often than other teams, and therefore have better possessions and more success. The author continues to provide various models he created from gathered data to exemplify basketball decision-making efficiency via mixed strategy equilibrium.
Nash Equilibrium is a concept that can be applied to many things in this world, basketball decision-making included. Of course, basketball is a fast-paced game and a player does not have the time to find this equilibrium every time he touches the ball before making a play. However, this analogy does provide fans, coaches, players, and analysts to better understand the difference between good decision-making and bad decision-making, regardless of outcome. This also provides a way to recognize ‘smart’ players and give such players credibility that they may not get from their statistics (i.e. Shane Battier). Thus, I can now explain to my peers, in terms they understand, why a play was good or bad. It’s all about finding that equilibrium…