Math’s Answer to Terror
This article discusses the use of Game Theory on the decisions of the Lashkar-e-Toiba terrorist organization. According to the US National Counter-Terrorism Centre, the LeT has carried out over 100 attacks since 2004. These attacks have contributed to the death of over 700 humans. Recently, LeT was accused of carrying out the 2008 attacks in Mumbai that killed more than 160 civilians.
To attempt to resolve and put an end to dangerous terrorist organizations, the US and India have teamed up and used game theory practices. Scientists and researchers built a model in which India, America, Pakistan’s military, Pakistan’s civilian government and the LeT are the players. There were 13 scenarios in which the LeT eliminates their violent actions. Each of these scenarios requests that the US cut financial support to Pakistan and launch covert operations against LeT, and India to carry coercive diplomacy against Pakistan and launch covert action against LeT. Political analysis has suggested these options in the past. However, this is one of the few times that mathematical evidence has been found to defend and suggest such options. The analysis is still bare boned; there are a lot of variables and factors that could change the model. Valid criticism was added by outside parties, but mostly everyone agreed that this was a useful and different approach to resolving potentially violent disputes between nations. However, the research team is attempting to identify mixed strategies that could offer a better result. While the current situation with LeT may be more complex than a simple pure and mixed strategy game, this study displays the simple logic behind analyzing matters of global and national security.
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