Game Theory for Future Predictions
Article from:(http://www.csoonline.com/article/682167/mac-malware-goes-from-game-to-serious)
In class, the concept of game theory has been brought up several times over the past two weeks. The core of game theory revolves around the calculated circumstances of one person’s success based on the choices that others make. In the case of this article about malware attacks against PC computers versus Mac computers, the payoff is different for the attackers, and the strategy of attack depends on how likely the software on a PC or Mac can detect the Malware.
Game theory can come in handy not just for short-term predictions, but also long-run behavioral analysis that can affect the future of a company. In the article above, a paper published back in 2007 used concepts from game theory to predict that when Apple takes more than 16 percent of the market share, that it will become a focus of Internet malware attacks. Contrary to popular belief that Macs are more secure than normal PC computers, the researchers suggest that it actually has to do with the fact that less people own Mac computers. The main argument is that since Apple did not take up a huge portion of the market that is the reason why it receives less malware attacks versus the PC.
With the Mac having an antivirus detection rate around 80 percent, the PC software would need to do better than 80 percent in order for attackers to divert their attention to the Mac. Using the game theory, the payoff for attackers when attacking PC computers is higher than attacking Mac computers at the rate of the Mac having a 80 percent detection rate and roughly about 6 percent share. However, the research suggests that if the PC detection rate was at a higher percentage around 90 percent, then the attackers will divert their attention to Mac even though Apple only took about 6 percent market shares back in 20087 Clearly the payoff for the attackers is higher if they chose the Mac given the detection rate for PC computers are higher than 80 percent.
Over the past four years, the Apple market has significantly increased, bypassing the 16 percent market share. As the researchers predicted back in 2007, the attacks on Mac computers increased due to the fact of its market growth and also Apple’s lack of significant improvement on its antivirus software. The concepts of game theory mean more than abstract predictions and just like the article pointed out, with the correct data, the future of the technology markets can be predicted.
Hello and thanks for the info, is good to know it, Ill be reading your blog