The Pandemic and Prisoner’s Dilemma
Main Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/virus-vaccine-game-theory.html
With the COVID-19 Pandemic about to hit its third-year mark, there have been multiple studies done on what could have happened if different choices were taken. One such study was done by researchers Chris Bauch and Madhur Anand, and they focused their research on the interplay between human behavior and environmental systems.
The study looked at two methods to create a methodology. The first was an epidemiological method that looked at virus transmissions by factoring in information such as “seasonality, susceptibility to infection according to age, and variations in the vaccine’s performance,” and the second was a game-theory method that factored in human behavior to “approximate how stringently people adhered to social distancing and other public health advice over time.”
After doing test runs and running their model, they found out that if vaccines were given early in the pandemic (around January to March 2021, with about 2.5 percent of the population vaccinated per week), then direct protection would prevent more deaths. However, if they weren’t available till later (around July to September, when there would be increased natural immunity) then indirect protection would be more effective. At the time of the study, the Covid vaccine was still new, so there were limitations, the most important being that the study assumed the Covid-19 vaccines block not only disease but also transmission.
However, even though this is the case, this study could only take into account that people would act rationally. The hesitancy to get vaccinated due to misinformation or fear causes vaccine rates to not be as high as they should be to stop the spread of an outbreak. When infection levels get low, people get comfortable and therefore lower their guard, which causes infection levels to rise again. This constant battle of ups and downs of infection rates and people’s behavior is what causes the pandemic waves.
Some people got the vaccine, since not only did they believe it would protect them, but also because it would help the overall population. Others chose to play a “wait-and-see” game, where they don’t get vaccinated and rely on the vaccinated population to reduce transmission. This is what the prisoner’s dilemma basically is. In order to beat the pandemic and increase vaccination rates, the vaccine would have to be marketed as an “act of altruism — one’s personal contribution to defeating the pandemic.” This will fix the misalignment of individual interests and societal interests and eventually stop the pandemic.