The Game Theory of Survivor
A glance into the show which captured the hearts and minds of couch-ridden Americans in the year 2000 reveals more than meets the eye. To an audience member ignorant of game theory, the show Survivor is merely “unkempt, stink-ladened heroes run[ning] roughshod through the bush with an egg on a spoon for two decades,” as put by one audience critic on IMDB. However, a deeper analysis of the beloved long-running reality show reveals a game predicated on the principles of social behavior, ethics, and rational choice.
To recognize how Survivor exemplifies the utilization of game theory, one must first understand the concept of Nash equilibrium as well as the rules of the game.
In a game between two or more players, a strategy that is the mutual best response of each player is its Nash equilibrium (or equilibria if there are multiple mutual best responses). Taking a popular example that exemplifies the concept’s application, the prisoner’s dilemma, frequently capitalized by law enforcement in practice, is a situation in which two prisoners have two options: confess or not confess. There are four outcomes with varying repercussions for each prisoner given these options: if prisoner 1 confesses and prisoner 2 does not, prisoner 1 is set free while prisoner 2 faces the maximum prison time; if prisoner 2 confesses and prisoner 1 does not, prisoner 2 is set free while prisoner 1 serves the maximum sentence; if both confess, both will serve a smaller sentence than the maximum sentence but a greater sentence than the minimum sentence; if neither confess, both will serve the minimum sentence.
In Survivor, 16 or more players, split into two teams, are sent to a remote location for 39 days with minimal resources and must compete in regular physical and mental challenges. Failure in these challenges results in the losing team voting off a single teammate in the event known as “Tribal Council”. Halfway through the competition, the remaining players disband from their teams, now competing for individual victory in the challenges to win immunity from being voted off. Players who are voted off join the “jury” who is responsible for voting for the winner of the show when there are only 2-3 contestants remaining.
Connecting the principle of the prisoner’s dilemma to Survivor may seem like a far stretch but a study conducted by the University of Ottawa offers sound reasoning into how this is the case, particularly regarding the infamous “Tribal Council” ceremony. The methodology of the study was to use two primary data points: votes and public speech of the contestants, which was quantified by determining if the speech was positive or negative and further divided by category: physical, mental, and social. In analyzing the contestant’s votes, the conductors of the study found that the coding of social language had a strong correlation to voting outcomes: “we see parallels to the Prisoners’ Dilemma structure: individual long-term interests are best served through alliances which involves defections outside of the group and final tribal council decisions are based on impressions of social strength more than strategy or mental capacity.”
While clearly abstract in nature due to the inevitable imperfection of attempting to quantify something as complex as human behavior, the study illuminates the idea that game theory can be applied to explain nearly all social interactions where there is potential for payoff.
Source: https://watermark.silverchair.com/15-4-359.pdf?token=AQECAHi208BE49Ooan9kkhW_Ercy7Dm3ZL_9Cf3qfKAc485ysgAAAuowggLmBgkqhkiG9w0BBwagggLXMIIC0wIBADCCAswGCSqGSIb3DQEHATAeBglghkgBZQMEAS4wEQQMnKv1JF3rFJD6Dck2AgEQgIICnZSFLbBnDNifHXX3Sph_i-RM1c0lmPtAbcXrfTSUIQegtubSCTjMN038XjRzIWw5-YRrb1Xr4a9vHFqUzID7r7_rIE-pMSGHNl4XnxXKU414XkBR86QhrsbR2ak8PaKswR_kvMzW9It1KsPYu00bdMW30I4mwJuZyu1orCbckxmT4EVM0wqXBE1UN618A44o2mwr6ldbbsO3u82Fq3GdOHDow7Z32iqVOGJc8HndzJb3nE8BFN8mZyyVV1FbqcitXRGXKM4FIe8RhOoNF58r5AeChkQxM1nM9HBbKvzHyRG8T27dErfJHlkqMDvbKv16a_Xkwaamdrhm7hvSsURmlaQUQ0-t_yKLfWV-OwZMNZT4IFbQva8K8erWHPZnuL-9CZNzvrs9yS7b5K-NowGNngVIbq2G0RtGZQVSs9nMpJetjHklPHjbjMMhy_TMFOPsRQViNpYWm6ESFDebMRiaq4vQTaOJvPfnZBqtsJUzurdrnlv-ORizkCtgunBKUTAt4bGcwF-Jtm55dvavM8ju9_jD7ejOHmMqPbaKpWHQN3ZYYoLWVLHdYZCS48AJhYdNR1GqWzRUARf3K3ZB-dVsoT85j59y3Nw8I_CPJ97MV5lFqpiductgG60gulNuF4co_LW22Zwrkt9L4qk5kCIegrjiscW42a34H3414qrC2xhU2_IpS8RuRMZ7J8NWIOloQKNclp-gYNo–zUkHSMNEJyG4AIRXRia5PyriYCYdNMQ2_E_VCASsixJAY7qH6UAFXACjKQZSKBLj3a-71ob5YtECi9–6ZQJgcts6rZUA4UsIzQIFDki0z0qSgaD3QuenUJZUJzRsTXIEfhl5BzlMFxVsvCWlHPd9czyad3CXdondaaSj-2KD1R00qAGQ