Game Theory and Covid-19
This article was about how the game theory can help us understand how to prioritize COVID-19 vaccine rollouts in order to save the most lives. Dr. Anand and Dr. Bauch are scientists who began studying COVID-19 from a game theory based perspective, and found that the pandemic mirrored a situation similar to the famous “Prisoner’s Dilemma”. Essentially, the parties involved must weigh cooperation against betrayal, and the potential rewards of each. In this case, each individual has to weigh the societal benefits of social distancing procedures against their personal desires for intimacy and freedom.
There is also the issue of vaccines, which produce a free rider dilemma. Individuals who are concerned about potential side effects of the vaccine are incentivized not to get the vaccine because they know that those around them are likely receiving it. By doing so, the transmission rates for COVID-19 go down, thus making it less important for an individual to receive the vaccine. This hesitancy gives rise to higher transmission rates, and in turn more people receiving the vaccine. This “wait-and-see” game slows down the process of recovering from the pandemic, as more people will hesitate to get the vaccine and will get infected.
This also relates to our discussion of Nash equilibria, as we learned that people acting in their self interest often do not arrive at the socially optimal solution. “Vaccination decisions based purely on self-interest can lead to vaccination coverage that is lower than what is optimal for society overall,”(Dr. Galvani, Yale Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis). Dr. Galvani’s research also included that of how altruism can boost vaccine rates to the benefit of the common good, and how fear can suppress vaccination rates by a large amount.
The article also links to another source by The Royal Society Publishing, in which a 2019 study explained vaccination hesitation through a mechanism called hysteresis. Hysteresis essentially refers to when effects from a stimuli or force persists even after the force is removed. In this case, this relates to how vaccine hesitancy persists even after vaccines are deemed safe for use. The article goes on to explain how this becomes a “tragedy of the commons”, and that the best way to overcome the fear surrounding vaccines is to promote receiving the vaccine as an act of altruism.
Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/virus-vaccine-game-theory.html
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2018.2406