Bringing Back Balance to Afghanistan
As most of us have seen, there has been high instability in Afghanistan after the United States withdrew its military forces. This report by Elizabeth Threlkeld and Grace Easterly is sponsored by the United States Institute of Peace and looks at ways Afghanistan can reach stability again after the United States withdrawal. The article talks about the three scenarios that are possible after the US withdrew. These scenarios include civil war, a negotiated settlement, or total Taliban takeover, which the Taliban takeover being the most likely in the other scenarios as well. They talk about how having a strong tie with Pakistan will help Afghanistan become stable once more. They go on to look at the history the Taliban and Pakistan have had and also discuss how India has not liked both of those countries. There is also no guarantee that Pakistan will be friendly with Afghanistan if the Taliban are not in control. The report rounds off with the recommendations that they make for the entire situation. They conclude that by saying stability in Afghanistan is just one piece of a regional web of connections.
This is a classic example of Graph Theory and how it is applicable in the real world. This situation is a great way to examine positive and negative relationships. These relationships can either be balanced or unbalanced. To me, the situation in Afghanistan is unbalanced at the moment. I think it can best be characterized by this graph:
A, B, and C represent Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. Right now, there are no positive relationships between any of them. If Afghanistan and Pakistan do reach a long-term peace deal the graph would then shift to this:
Afghanistan and Pakistan would have a positive relationship while both having a negative relationship with India, thus creating a situation that is balanced. This would also satisfy the structural balance property if Afghanistan were to become stable and become friendly with Pakistan once more.
Source: https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/pw_175-afghanistan_pakistan_ties_and_future_stability_in_afghanistan.pdf