Governmental inaction and civil disobedience
The following article from The Hill: https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/climate-change/572140-poll-finds-huge-percentage-fear-having, presents a survey that finds increased anxiety among teenagers and young adults due to concerns about climate change. The article claims that 39% of the interviewed subjects felt uncertain about having children in their future as an attempt to reduce the added carbon footprint. The report emphasized the feeling of betrayal that these interviewees felt about their government’s inaction on the climate crisis.
I propose a game where there exists two players – the government and climate activists – where the government can either take action and satisfy the climate needs or do nothing (prioritize other needs), and the activists can tend to civil disobedience or not. (This scenario is generalized terribly, I know, and it is not an accurate image of the actual atmosphere. The government may take some initiatives and find some middle ground. The protesters are different groups of individuals where some participate in civil disobedience, and there are certainly other ways to help the environment, though one group that often is disobedient is Extinction Rebellion.) Given that we currently experience the case where the government does not prioritize climate change, we analyze this scenario first. The response from the climate activists can either be disobedience or tacit agreement. If the goal of the activists is to act in a way to aid the environment, we see that coding nothing does not have a particularly significant effect – they would behave just like any other citizen. And given that there exists a tipping point (1:see link), there is a time condition that we need to act before as long as we can, so it does not pay to do nothing – one can just hope for the best and that we were wrong. The other option for he activists is to be disobedient, hence spread awareness about climate change. Civil disobedience can cause a polarization effect where some people perceive disobedience as ridiculous while others might take it seriously and spread the message, since why would someone, presumably rational, be disobedient? This may have a spreading effect that eventually becomes a central topic for an election, just like it did in Norway three days ago (2: learn more about it in the link below). I can personally attest to this being from Norway. The election this cycle was drastically different from what it has been in the past, with the environment becoming a deciding factor, especially among young adults, for which party one should vote for. There was a protest in front of the parlament where 3-4 young adults stood on a large ice block in hot weather with a rope around their neck (no one got injured).
So for the government, they can either be inactive about climate change or take initiative. One possible consequence of climate inaction are economic ramifications. So, take Norway again. Profits from oil lifted Norway up to one of the richest countries per capita, creating the largest wealth fund in the world (Norway’s oil fund), with 50 percent of its export revenue coming from oil today. Research shows that this sector needs to be drastically reduced over the next five years in order to fulfill UN’s climate requirements. That means great losses of revenue, employment, social stability and other resources. Note that the government’s decision do not directly depend on the protestors actions in this game. So the government aims to create a functioning society taking health and economics in consideration. In the short term, climate inaction may seem like the more attractive answer, while the long term consequences are seemingly less severe. Thus, it seems that the equilibrium occurs at a state where the government remains inactive about climate change, and the protestors tend to civil disobedience for their cause.
- climate change turning pointhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_systemhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_system
- https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/13/world/europe/norway-climate-election.html