The Pandemic Is a Prisoner’s Dilemma Game
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/virus-vaccine-game-theory.html
COVID-19 proved difficult for many reasons. Besides the obvious annoyances of quarantining, social distancing, masks, and zoom meetings for everything, there was also the dilemma of choice that plagued the masses during this pandemic. For many countries, especially the United States, social distancing and mask-wearing were not very heavily emphasized or mandated. In fact, many states had the option of mandating masks individually, and a lot, including my state of Nebraska, chose not to mandate masks at all. Now that a vaccine has been created and out for a while, there is the continued dilemma of choice: vaccine or no vaccine?
The article above speaks about the pandemic as a huge game of the prisoner’s dilemma played out repeatedly. Everything about the pandemic is a choice between the needs of the many versus the needs of one. Take the vaccination for example: to some, it’s a no-brainer to get vaccinated. But for others who may have concerns about the benefits of the vaccine in comparison to the uncertainty surrounding it, if infection rates get low enough, the vaccine no longer seems critical. As the article states, this creates an issue because taking vaccines purely based on self-interest can create lower coverage than what is optimal. This is a perfect example of Nash equilibrium, which is a strategy in which everyone has their own best self-interest in mind first, maximizing individual payoff. An interesting theory to explore, however, is the effect of altruism. Would it boost vaccine levels past the Nash equilibrium? There are fundamental problems with the way society approaches problems because there is often a stark difference between the interests of one versus societal interests. If the idea of altruism is utilized, it frames the vaccine as an act of self-interest that gives people the push to “personally contribute” to defeat the pandemic. This is an “indirect protection” approach to the vaccine. Rather than the vaccine helping us directly, “indirect protection” focuses more on protecting the contacts of those who get the vaccine. Overall, the researchers found that this approach, which has been employed in many European countries, increases rates of vaccination. Something that countries such as the United States should take note of.
Studying the pandemic under the lens of game theory gives lots of insight into human behavior. By combining game theory and human behavior, these scientists were able to model the best and most effective ways of playing into the nuances of human behavior to most effectively advertising the vaccine.