How to find the BAE using BAYES theorem
This Business Insider article aims to explain how to figure out how well a date is going by using Bayes Theorem. In class we learned that Bayes Theorem is a probability “model of decision-making under uncertainty” and this rule can be applied to dating. Sometimes it’s hard to gauge if the date is going well. Using Bayes Theorem, you can produce the probability that the date likes you. According to Business Insider writer Andy Kiersz, you only need the following equation to calculate if your date is going to lead anywhere:
P(A|E) represents the probability that your date likes you given the new evidence E. E/evidence refers to the new information and events that come up while the date is happening (good conversation, a kiss, etc.). P(A) is simply the probability that your date likes you with no other information. Following Bayes model we need to calculate P(E|A) which refers to the probability that you and your date will have a great date given that he/she likes you. We also need to compute P(E|not A) which is the probability that the date will go well despite the fact that your date does not like you. As your date continues you can reiterate this process to find out if your date is going up or downhill. Bayes Theorem seems to be the ideal way to calculate how well a date is going because you can continuously compute the probability as more topics and events come up during the date.
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/dating-for-bayesians-heres-how-to-use-statistics-to-improve-your-love-life-2013-11
Great post! (and title).