Updated Facebook Status: Started a Protest Movement and Ousted the Dictator
The Arab Spring that has been taking place since the protests in Tunisia has been unique for a multitude of reasons. The Middle East and northern Africa is glaringly the least democratized area of the world, with many countries controlled by some form of dictatorship or authoritarian government. However, starting with the protests in Tunisia, which inevitably brought about Zine El Abidine Ben Al’s demise, the protesters in other countries, like Egypt and Syria, have taken up the democratic cause. According to current theories in government with regard to protest movements and conflicts, these movements are very infrequent, with a general figure of about 5% of the population willing to actually participate in the protest. This “Rebel’s Dilemma” (http://books.google.com/books?id=CWJIl5A5NOMC&pg=PA26&lpg=PA26&dq=rebel’s+dilemma&source=bl&ots=uiQrb81I2o&sig=3I8MVitfpV0oAO8hNE2T4y0sglw&hl=en&ei=0a6CTsDgBebX0QHcg9mjAQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=7&ved=0CFUQ6AEwBg#v=onepage&q&f=false) can be seen as a unique form of the Prisoner’s Dilemma. If both the government and the protesters “collaborate,” or rather if no one protests, the government’s payoff is high while the protesters are upset but inactive. The payoff to the protesters if only a couple of protesters join the movement is increased, but costs must be taken into consideration. Therefore, unless the movement is large enough, the costs of protesting are much higher than not protesting. Finally, if enough protesters join the movement, the payoff is to everyone in the country (even those who did not protest) and the government is changed in some way. Thus protesting becomes a sort of public good, where the benefits can be felt by everyone, but the specific costs are only felt by those willing to join the movement. These conclusions lead to the formulation of the Rebel’s Dilemma, which says that protest movements are highly unlikely.
However, with the advent of social networking, the ease with which protest movements can get organized and spread their message has increased (http://dl.dropbox.com/u/12947477/reports/pITPI_datamemo_2011.pdf). This article points to the fact that with social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter, the protesters within the country were not only able to spread their message within their specific country, but also to the rest of the world. This was beneficial for multiple reasons. First and one of the most important ones, is the fact that once the authoritarian government decided to clamp down on the movement and sometimes attempted to block these social networks, the international realm was brought in to help continue the movement with their international servers that could not be turned off by these governments. Moreover, these social networks helped to quickly spread the message and bring a certain level of realism to those not directly at the scene of the protest. This article shows that sites like Twitter and Facebook were important in creating the upsurge needed just before an important protest or political turning point. In addition, the networks helped the movements to get organized, including the ability to receive funding from international sources.
All of this put together points to the idea that with the arrival of social networking and instant technologies like cell phones, the Rebel’s Dilemma shifts in the protester’s favor. It helps them to organize, receive funding, have a clear message, and perhaps decrease the chance that a specific rebel is targeted by the government, thereby increasing the incentive for others to join the protest movements.