Today’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data release reports that New York State’s seasonally-adjusted April 2020 unemployment rate is 14.5% – an historical high just two months after the State recorded its historically low rate of 3.7% in February 2020. That rate is close to the national level of 14.7%, and slightly below estimates (including our own) of 15%-16% derived from forecasts and raw U.S. Census Current Population Survey (CPS) data for April 2020.

Does this mean that unemployment is slightly less of an issue in New York State compared to the U.S. as a whole?

Absolutely not. For one thing, a 14.5% unemployment rate is still devastating, and a far cry from the sub-4% levels pre-COVID-19. Secondly, and more importantly, the BLS state-level estimates are always flagged as “preliminary” when they are first released – meaning that they will be revised at a later date and may increase as results trickle in from additional surveys. Judging by how unemployment insurance (UI) claims in New York have continued to fluctuate up and down – including another 14% week-over-week increase announced yesterday – while, nationally, UI claims have fallen for seven consecutive weeks, there is ample reason to believe that New York’s unemployment situation is more extreme than the U.S. average. Indeed, today’s BLS report even shows that, on a percentage/relative basis, New York’s month-over-month and year-over-year job losses are both among the top three highest values observed nationally.

At bottom, the official (preliminary) April 2020 unemployment rate for New York State is not as high as many of us were anticipating – a positive outcome, to be sure. However, between the preliminary status of today’s estimates, trends in UI claims, and other corroborating data, the final analysis is likely to show that New York has been one of the hardest hit states by COVID-19 to date.

Continue to check back here for more coverage of this topic in the coming days and weeks.