Information Cascades as an Explanation for Election Behavior
With Election Day fast approaching, it is interesting to consider how information cascades affect voter behavior. While we may think electorates act individually, there are certainly confounding factors at play affecting individuals’ voting patterns. In an increasingly technological world dominated by social media posts and campaigns, one’s “true” beliefs can get muddied quite easily. Indeed, information silos, or in other words systematic means by which only reciprocal information is shared within a group, push people to political extremes and limit their abilities to approach topics from an objective perspective. These silos can be seen as a form of information cascades, preventing voters from thinking for themselves and simply “following the herd.” In both recent Nepalese elections and US presidential elections, such behavior led to interesting, unexpected, and perhaps unfavorable, results.
This being said, there is validity in group think and following the crowd, as generally it is advantageous for humans to abide by the “wisdom of the crowds.” For example, in the case of search engines like Google, the links that are heavily clicked by other users are likely hot and contain important information—thus they are prioritized. People click on the top links, so these cascades will lead to information diffusion across a larger population, which is usually helpful. Truly, in most cases, if others deem it worthy to read, it is actually worthy for a user to read. Still, as we covered in the balls-and-urns example in class, the threshold for information cascades can be dicey; in that example, seeing two or more individuals before you choose a specific urn will spark a cascade, and all pertinent information you gather will become irrelevant. With elections, this phenomenon feels dystopian and scary, as politicians could be put into power just because a few powerful people initiated an information cascade.
So, as you head to your local election centers on November 8th, consider the role of information cascades on your decision on who to elect. It might not change your selection, but question yourself: is my vote truly my decision?
Sources:
https://myrepublica.nagariknetwork.com/news/the-behavioral-economics-of-election/
https://www.meridiaars.com/voting-and-herd-mentality/