Activist Hacking and Ultimatum
Black Reward, an Iranian hacking group, released information pertaining to an Iranian nuclear plant and the country’s atomic development. The group had threatened to release such information if the government failed to release political prisoners and protesters within 24 hours.
At the risk of crudely abstracting and reducing a real-world event of great social and political consequence down to a model and omitting its context, one can view this conflict between the hacking group and the Iranian government as an ultimatum game. The two parties are to enter into an agreement—releasing prisoners and no sensitive information released. If no deal is struck, then each party resorts to its outside option. For the government, the payoff from the outside option would be political integrity, legitimacy, and authority. For the hacking group, the outside option would be to release sensitive information. A few question then arises from this view: what would it look like to consider external harm and benefit as part of the payoff? By releasing such information, the hacking group not only gains recognition for competence and activism, but also deals political damage and advantage to different parties. Does the government’s refusal to give in mean that it sees the payoff from its outside option outweighing what it would get from entering into an agreement?
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-atomic-energy-organization-says-e-mail-was-hacked-state-media-says-2022-10-23/