Engaging with North Korea: Lessons from Game Theory
As most know, North Korea remains one of the most repressive countries in the world. The authoritarian leader Kim Jong Un has shown a thirst for power throughout his 11 years as the “supreme leader”. Under his rule, North Korea has increased its arms testing and nuclear threats, tormenting many around the world. Due to fears and the pressure of North Korea’s military prowess, the United States has made multiple negotiations on denuclearization in hopes of easing the tension. The change in presidency in 2021 allowed both nations to reevaluate their relationship with each another and opened up opportunities for potential discussions about the future. To make tactful decisions, game theory can be applied to conflicts in diplomatic relations, like the US and North Korea, by quantifying strategic interactions and ensuring the decision being made is in the best interest of all players.
As learned in lecture, the prisoner’s dilemma exemplifies how two entirely rational individuals might not cooperate, even if it results in the most favorable outcome for everyone involved. Following this archetype, the interests of both United States and North Korean leaders are essential when determining the best course of action. Negotiations revolving around nuclear disarmament in North Korea are complicated due to surrounding circumstances, as well as Kim Jong Un’s unclear goals and motivations. Therefore, Kim Jong Un’s best response in this scenario might be to walk away from any agreements as his main goal is to remain in power and potentially take over the southern Korean peninsula. This result would offer high payoffs for North Korea while leaving the United States with potentially no payoff. On the other hand, the United States would prefer the outcome where negotiations are successful and future crises are averted, resulting in higher payoffs for the US compared to North Korea. Since the two best responses of each country differ from each other, agreements are hard to compromise. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate and analyze conflicts logistically through a game theory lens in order to grasp a more empirical perspective on human behavior for future insight into more complex strategies than the example explored here.
Work Cited:
Smith, Troy D., et al. “Engaging with North Korea: Lessons from Game Theory.” RAND Corporation, 12 Aug. 2021, https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA674-1.html.