Prisoner’s Dilemma in the NFL
The final week of the NFL’s 17 game long season could arguably be the most hectic time of the year as different circumstances and outcomes of games could greatly affect the postseason picture. On week 17 of the 2021-2022 NFL season, the Indianapolis Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars were set to play each other on Sunday afternoon while the Las Vegas Raiders were to face off against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday night. The Raiders or Chargers could secure their spot in the playoffs with a win. However, if the Jaguars were to beat the Colts earlier in the day before the start of their game, both teams could advance with a tie, raising the small possibility of both teams playing with designs to end the game with a tied score of 0-0. This scenario is seen as a version of a prisoner’s dilemma.
Should the Jaguars have beaten the Colts, the Chargers and Raiders could have made a deal with one another and agree to end the game with a 0-0 scoreline in order for both teams to clinch a playoff berth. However, with this strategy comes numerous consequences. Both teams could potentially violate league rules causing forcing them to forfeit their spot in the playoffs or they could end up getting a lot of hate from media and other teams. More importantly however, there is a possibility that the other team chooses to go back on their word and score in the last moments.
In American football especially, it is difficult to end the game on a tie as teams are unable to hold on to the ball for long periods of time. They are given 4 downs to make it ten yards. In the event they are unable to do so, a “turnover on downs” occurs, giving the other team possession of the ball. As a result, coaching staffs from both sides dismissed the possibility of a 60 minute kneeling fest. However, NFL analysts believe it could alter team’s decision making throughout the game.
The Charger’s offense run by quarterback star Justin Herbert is known to be one of the most aggressive teams in the NFL often going for it on fourth down. However, in a late game situation during their game against the Raiders, the Chargers could choose to play more passive and punt the ball on fourth down knowing that a tie is as good as a win. The Raiders could play with the same passive mindset and choose to run the clock out rather than take shots in the end zone and risking a pick-six. In this scenario, both teams would choose to play the cautious strategy.
If the Jacksonville Jaguars were to pull an upset and miraculously win the game against the Indianapolis Colts, the Raiders and Chargers would find themselves in a Prisoner’s Dilemma. Should they choose to play for the tie and risk public humiliation, punishment from the league, and a potential betrayal from the other team or should they risk a loss and aim to secure a spot in the playoffs themselves by playing for a win?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/raiders-chargers-tie-nfl-playoff-scenarios-11641516938