Game Theory and Ukraine War with China’s Global Relationship
At the beginning of 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, while China is long considered the strongest partner with Russia for regional conflicts. At the start of the war, the two leaders of China and Russia declared that the Relationship between the two countries had “no limits.” Simultaneously, Russia benefited from trading more oil with China to offset the reduced oil exports to Europe and sanctions during the war. However, with Russia’s recent defeats in Ukraine, China raised concerns over Russia’s invasion and shifted its strategies to reduce tensions with the Western countries, especially the USA.
This diplomatic event relates to the class, as we can demonstrate how two players change the strategist to maximize their payoffs until Nash Equilibrium. For China, the two strategists are either “cooperate with Russia” or “keep neutral.” Meanwhile, the two options for Russia are either “a war within three months” or “a war over three months.” Since the strategies are not independent between Russia and China, at least one non-randomized Nash Equilibrium exists. From the beginning war, China’s state media believed Russia would have ended the war within one month, which was beneficial for China to partner with Russia to fight against the Western for Taiwan issues. So Russia and China’s strategy at that time was “a war within three months” and “cooperate with Russia.” Later, in reality, the Ukraine war continues until September 16th, 2022. This over 6-month war led China to believe more defeats on Russia which eventually affected China’s international political status and made the Western start sanctions against China. So due to the change of Strategy from Russia, China also changed its option from “cooperate with Russia” to “keep neutral” in Ukraine War. Again, this combination of strategies maximizes China’s payoff. Hence, game theory explains why China switches its side to maximize political payoffs.