REPOST (see note): Sticky Substances: How an MLB Pitcher’s Best Response in 2021 Became a Gamble
NOTE: The following is a repost of my second blog post, which was accidentally posted before the time window I was supposed to post during. I was told to repost it during this time window in order to receive credit. I apologize for any confusion.
Spider tack. Pine tar. Rosin mixed with sunscreen. Other specially formulated concoctions, crafted to be as sticky as possible. At the beginning of the 2021 MLB season, you would be hard pressed to find an MLB pitcher walking out to the mound without some sticky stuff on their hands, and with good reason: sticky stuff can provide a substantial boost to any pitcher’s ability. While pitchers who have been armed with these sticky substances claim that it helps them better locate the ball, the main, well-documented appeal to using sticky substances is its spin rate enhancing effects. Spin rate is a measure of how fast a baseball is spinning. For most pitch types, a higher spin rate correlates with more movement on the pitch, which will make the ball that much harder for a batter to make solid contact with. An MLB pitcher’s job is to not let the batter make solid contact with the baseball. What’s not to love?
But it gets even better. Sure, there are many ways a player can get a leg up on their opponents in maybe not-so-high-integrity ways. A pitcher can scuff up a ball before throwing it to make it move in unpredictable ways. A hitter can cork a bat to swing it through the zone quicker. Hell, a whole team could even devise some elaborate trashcan-banging scheme that lets them know what pitch is coming their way. And I haven’t even brought up steroids. Getting this edge on your competition is a game within the game, for baseball and any other sport. Especially at the pro level, where livelihoods depend on production, and the pressure for an athlete to perform is at its highest, you see players in constant negotiation with themselves: Hey, what can I do to get this contract while not getting kicked out of the league? So why is dipping your hand in some sticky stuff the best way to cheat? Well, about that: using sticky stuff wasn’t even considered cheating. Wait, so I can get an unfair advantage over all of my opponents, at no risk or cost to me? Exactly! What’s not to love? There is absolutely no downside!
In fact, using sticky substances is your best response to every scenario. You’re a fringe-average pitcher in the MLB, and you know that using sticky substances would make you twice as good, but you decide not to use the sticky substance. Instead, you keep putting up mediocre stats and getting small contracts. Worst of all, you aren’t getting any younger. Why would anyone do that? And as if not using sticky substances isn’t bad enough, other pitchers in the league are catching on and are starting to use it. So now you’re not an even average MLB pitcher, because everyone else around you is getting better. Pitchers who wouldn’t have been in the league earlier are now competing with you for your spot, and you risk being out of a job within a few weeks. Crap, is this stuff on Amazon? And so just like that, just about every pitcher in the league who wanted a job was a sticky substance user.
The figure above depicts the game scenario for a pitcher in early 2021 debating whether or not to use sticky substances in different MLB climates. Payoffs indicate the factor a player would improve by in a given outcome. All payoffs are hypothetical. This game also makes the simplifying assumption (which was true) that there is no risk to using sticky substances.
But alas, all (not so) good things come to an end. The league itself has revised its policy and reinforcement of sticky substance use, and now has umpires thoroughly checking pitchers for sticky substances at random when they come off the mound, handing out lengthy time off and fines for those deemed guilty. So, those who dare to use this stuff are far and few between. The reward simply doesn’t justify the risk; choosing to use sticky substances is now a gamble. Pitchers are now back to performing at the level they should. In the game within a game, a best response has fallen.