Strange Shoes & Informational Cascades
This summer, the Wall Street Journal published an article exploring the recent trend in the increasing prevalence of ‘ugly shoes’—and how they keep ‘getting uglier’—over the past few years. While doing further research, I came across an academic article from three economists at the University of California, Los Angeles, who developed a theory that the nature behind fads and how they play into the adoption and rejection of fashion trends, customs, and cultural changes can be explained through informational cascades.
Of course, this relates to the topic of information cascades from class. Information cascades may occur when people make decisions based on information obtained from those who have made decisions before them. Cascades actually occur when individuals, prompted to make these decisions, abandon the preconceived notions and information they might already have, and instead defer to these inferences made based on the decisions, and resultant actions, of their predecessors.
Through the textbook and our discussions in lecture, we’ve already used our knowledge of information cascades in applications to real-life phenomena: for example, we can use it to understand how candidates in elections become popular (and maintain said popularity) or how books on best-seller lists continue to remain successful, and understands even how protests, revolts and revolutions begin.
We can also use information cascades to understand the widespread adoption of new fashions—specifically, the trend toward more… we’ll say interesting styles of shoes. As more people gravitate toward shoes with clashing color-schemes, bizarrely-shaped soles and over-exaggerated features, individuals looking to remain ‘fashionable’ may throw out their black dress shoes and neutrally-colored sneakers in favor of a garish pair of polka-dotted heels or a furry pair of sneakers. These individuals look at the decisions of those made before them, and despite what they might think is truly ‘fashionable’, they make the rational decision to follow the crowd.
This is helpful information for firms in the fashion industry, too: in order to remain competitive and ‘in style’, these companies must continue to push the envelope, so long as weird shoes are still ‘in’. Furthermore, these firms can further the proliferation and effectivity of these cascades by effectively utilizing social media, partnering with luxury brands and getting their products endorsed by celebrities, who can broadcast their own decisions and influence a wider audience.
Integral to the earlier-mentioned paper, however, is the emphasis on the fragility of cascades—and how the nature of information cascades can both result in uniform, widespread adoption and drastic, rapid change. Like many other trends—think Kooky Pens, Sillybandz, Beyblades, Zhuzhu Pets, and Rainbow Looms (remember those!)—changes in the fashion industry often happen at breakneck-speed, and don’t stick around for long before the next fad takes hold, given mass cascades’ ability to be easily overturned with relatively low effort.
So, until the next wave of information cascades bring about a change in the shoe industry, don your nearest pair of spiky neon shoes and be prepared to ask “What are you wearing?!”
Sources
Gallagher, Jacob. “How Ugly Shoes Won (and Why They Keep Getting Uglier)” Wall Street Journal, 21 Aug. 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-ugly-shoes-won-and-why-they-keep-getting-uglier-11629518404. Accessed 4 Nov. 2021.
Bikhchandani, Sushil, et al. “A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades.” Journal of Political Economy, vol. 100, no. 5, University of Chicago Press, 1992, pp. 992–1026, http://www.jstor.org/stable/2138632.