Bayes’ Theorem’s Divine Application
According to Tuan Nguyen Doan’s article: A Bayesian Quest to Find God, David Easley and Joseph Halpern in my Networks class taught me a theorem to determine whether or not God exists. To unpack this outrageous claim and clickbait of sorts, Doan actually explains that Bayes’ theorem at its core can be applied to any situation or phenomena involving a probability that something exists/will happen/happened. The way the argument was framed involved a set up of some definition of events to construct the conditional probability where:
“G” stands for “God exists” we can make the assumptions that P(M|G)≫ P(M|∼G) and that either P(M|∼G)=0 or P(M|∼G)≈0”
Further, the article highlighted the beliefs of David Hume, a famous Scottish philosopher, who believed due to probability and statistics one can never be certain about anything based solely on traditional beliefs, coexistence, or testimony due to the fact that includes a testimony from somebody at some point. Hume argued that the probability of the resurrection/divine being/etc: P(M=resurrection) is significantly smaller than the probability of false testimonies: P(testimony|no resurrection), which makes P(resurrection|testimony ) < 0.5. More generally, it is next to impossible to find cases in which P(M) > P(T|~M), and so we can never reliably associate a testimony with a miracle or divine interaction.
Initial reactions to these arguments and the article as a whole are mixed: initially surprised and almost offended, however, stripping it of its religious connotations and looking at it from a purely objective and academic standpoint, the theorem may be applicable. At its core it is a simple concept, Bayes’ Theorem is determining the probability that a theory that something occurred is true. It was refreshing to see such an outlandish connection, as it makes it clear how certain theorem’s can break boundaries and be applied to more than just a class or a problem but in many different facets of life, even religion.
https://towardsdatascience.com/a-bayesian-quest-to-find-god-b30934972473