Understanding The Surfside Tragedy Through Game Theory — Joshua Homa
On June 24, 2021, the Champlain Towers South, a beachfront residential complex, in Surfside, Florida Collapsed. The tragedy led to the death of ninety-eight civilians. There are currently investigations to determine the cause of the fall, however, trustworthy sources believe structural damage through erosion led the building to fall. However, this disaster didn’t occur overnight.
This can be looked at with the lens through game theory. Although lives at risk is definitely not a game, decisions and “strategies” are in play with two “players” which also occurs in games.
There are two “players.” (1) The Champlain Towers South Condominium Association, who made decisions for whether the building was to be repaired or not; and (2) residents living in the building who decided to stay or evacuate the building. There are two decisions for each “player” with four possible outcomes.
For the Champlain Towers South Condominium Association, they could either repair (which would cost $15,000,000) or not repair the building which would lead to infinity damages as everything related to the Association would dissolve.
For the residents living in the building, they could either continue living in the building or move somewhere else after being notified there was a faulty foundation. “The problems had been reported in 2018 and noted as “much worse” in April 2021.” People knew the foundation was faulty before the collapse.
The chart of possible outcomes is below. The side column is the Champlain Towers South Condominium Association. The top column is the Residents.
| Evacuate the Building | Live in the Building | |
| Don’t Repair Building | (-infinity, -$100,000)
the building will collapse and the people will pay for moving. |
(–infinity, -infinity)
the building will collapse and the people will die. The Association and the residents will dissolve. |
| Repair Building
|
(-$15,000,000, -$100,000)
The people will move out and the building will be repaired |
(-$15,000,000, 0)
The people will move out and the building will be safe to live in |
- According to Realtor.com it takes around $15,000-200,000 to move which I’ll say is $100,000 on average.
In this “game” there is a dominant strategy where is the Champlain Towers South Condominium Association should repair the building and the people will therefore stay after it is safe to live in. If repaired, the building is safe to live in and the residents can save money by staying in the building. If the Champlain Towers South Condominium Association doesn’t repair the building, they are bound to be at a negative payoff of infinity because the company will dissolve, the blame will remain, and they will be publicly shamed. If the people stay in the building when it is not repaired which is sadly what happened because people don’t have $100,000 of disposable income, they would die. Responsibly, the Association should have repaired and spent the $15,000,000 as there is no price to life. Sadly, money causes hard decisions to be made. This tragedy is no game. However analyzing the strategies and understanding which payoff is best in situations is important for “winning” and in this case saving time, money, and lives.
Citation
Main Article
https://abcnews.go.com/US/surfside-condo-collapse/story?id=80068218
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surfside_condominium_collapse