Game Theory and Exploitability in Poker
Game Theory is an interesting concept we explored in class that is seen in everything from rock, paper, scissors to chess. It is also relevant when playing poker; in fact, there is a term in the game that hinges on this logic called game theory optimal (GTO) poker. I play poker and firsthand understand the importance of conceptualizing every possible scenario before strategically making decisions. However, I am an amateur compared to professionals who quite literally are constantly performing mathematical calculations before calling, folding, and raising in games. In a setting of advanced “rational decision-makers,” professionals need to quite literally conceptualize mathematical models based on the possible actions of other players. These decisions usually only involve prior human thinking knowledge, the 2 cards in one’s hand, and the 5 on the table (on the river). Now let’s look more specifically into the game theory of poker and player exploitability.
Game theory is all about decisions and more often than not making one that benefits yourself. When you look at the Prisoner’s Dilemma, a sub-concept explored in class, there is one mutually beneficial decision that would technically be the “fairest” option which is for both of them to not confess. However, in poker, there is not one decision that would be fair and evenly divide the pot (unless both players have matching hands which is more chance than game theory, anyway). In poker, one player will win the round and walk away with the pot. With this guaranteed outcome in mind, the goal of every player is to maximize other player’s exploitability but minimize their own. This maximization and minimization concept is thoroughly explored in Jen Li’s paper titled “Exploitability and Game Theory Optimal Play in Poker.” The author looks into how exploiting an opponent is best done after a thorough understanding of your opponent’s general playstyle, previous hands, and ticks. Poker, at times, may involve inexperienced individuals or even professionals who behave irrationally which diminishes the importance of having a standard rationale. The GTO methodology is not always used which results in this assumption of this rational playstyle technique being useless in some scenarios.
In the end, rational poker play especially with professionals relies on GTO poker. However, poker is a game of deceit and exploiting others which is much less than rational. So, players often rely on analyzing past hand actions, conceptualizing mathematical models (probability analyses), and abusing weaknesses.
Article: https://math.mit.edu/~apost/courses/18.204_2018/Jingyu_Li_paper.pdf