Game Theory and Covid-19 Vaccination
In class, we learned about the concept of game theory and Prisoner’s Dilemma. Games are simply situations that involve the interaction among multiple decision makers. In a rational game, we assume that each player will make a strategic decision that will maximize his own payoff. Although each player makes his own decision, the outcome of his decision is influenced by others’ decisions. As a result, the outcome (Nash equilibrium) for everyone may not always be optimal. For example, the Prisoner’s Dilemma shows that if both players stick to their dominant strategy (to confess), then the outcome for everyone is not optimal. They would be better off if both of them choose to not confess.
The Prisoner’s Dilemma game can be seen in this ongoing pandemic. For example, everyone can reduce the risk of infection by wearing masks, washing hands, and social distancing. They can also choose the alternatives if they believe following public health recommendations are annoying to them. As a result, the rate of infection goes up. Although people made the decisions independently, they bear the consequences collectively. The introduction of Covid-19 vaccine is another great example of Prisoner’s Dilemma. People make their own decisions regarding vaccination. Dr. Galvani, who is an epidemiologist and the director of the Yale Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, warns that “Vaccination decisions based purely on self-interest can lead to vaccination coverage that is lower than what is optimal for society overall.”. Some people are hesitant to get vaccinated due to the fear of potential risks. At the same time, they are benefiting from reduced transmission generated by vaccinated people. However, their refusal of vaccination creates a collective risk for everyone. This is the case where individual interests and societal interests produce a conflict.
A doctoral student in mathematics at Dartmouth College named Xingru Chen refers to the current situation as “the tragedy of the commons”. She suggests that vaccination should be promoted as an act of altruism. People must be aware that the only way to defeat the pandemic is to have everyone make a contribution (getting vaccinated). The temporary sacrifice of self-interest can yield the long-run benefit for the entire community. We learned from Prisoner’s Dilemma people are unlikely to sacrifice their self-interests under rational play. Only when people see that this act of altruism can be returned, then they will cooperate. They will only trust the vaccine when they see more people around them are willing to get vaccinated or when they see the cost of not getting vaccinated outweigh the cost of getting vaccinated. The battle against the pandemic becomes a battle between selfishness and altruism.
Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/virus-vaccine-game-theory.html