The Pandemic Is a Prisoner’s Dilemma Game
Blog Post 1: mb2397
When the vaccine was originally approved to be deployed to the population, the number one question on politicians’ and medical professionals’ minds was who should receive it first. While some wanted to randomize the vaccine’s general reception, leading scientists wanted to analyze and discover the best solution that would save the most lives.
Researchers used game theory, but more specifically the prisoner’s dilemma, since they knew that each individual’s choices is based on the choices that others make. This juxtaposition of cooperation and betrayal produces a result that isn’t always the best for all parties involved, but emulates the complexities of the social issues surrounding the widespread acceptance of the vaccine. As some wanted to get vaccinated as soon as possible, others preferred to wait and see what effects they would have on the general population and some decided against the vaccine altogether despite its necessity for the common good. This meant that the population would never be fully vaccinated even though it would be the optimal result, leaving conditions ripe to apply the prisoner’s dilemma. “Vaccination decisions based purely on self-interest can lead to vaccination coverage that is lower than what is optimal for society overall,” said Dr. Alison Galvani, an epidemiologist and the director of the Yale Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis. While infectious disease models do not take into account varying human behavior, such as the reception to vaccines, the game theory model scientists designed was able to factor in human behavior such as adherence to social distancing and similar public health measures. By using the Nash equilibrium to understand how humans choose different outcomes based on self interest, the model showed that fewer vaccines with an earlier availability from January to March would prevent more deaths than a later vaccine with an increased number of doses.
These results helped push for the earlier deployment of the Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson and Johnson vaccine in early 2021, helping curb the pandemic in the summer.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/virus-vaccine-game-theory.html