Guns, Germs, and Game Theory
One of my favorite books, Guns, Germs, and Steel, written by Jared Diamond, explains the course of history through various different lens like biology, geography, and sociology. Diamond uses the intersection of several subjects to review history and really determine why the course of history fanned out that way. From analyzing the resources that the earliest humans like big game to hunt and flora to start farming to the spread of diseases across continents, Diamond attempts to showcase why certain civilizations and peoples were more successful relative to others and provides a well rounded look at the growth of humanity.
One of the more fascinating interactions between civilizations highlighted by Diamond was the Spanish conquest of Tenochtitlan. This bout between the Spanish forces of Hernan Cortes and the Aztecs exemplifies game theory and how decisive decision making changed the course of history.
From the beginning, the Spanish had an edge over the Aztecs. The Spanish arrived in the Americas yielding several deadly weapons that gave them a clear advantage in warfare. Their basic weaponry was more effective and more technologically advanced; the Aztecs were fighting cavalry and cannons with bows and arrows. Even worse was the Small Pox that the Spanish brought, which the Europeans and Asians become resistant to, but the Americans never saw before. These advantages instantly made any strategy the Spanish had a dominant one. A Spanish force of a couple hundred were able to fight and take down thousands of natives.
Knowing the might of the Spanish, the Aztec king Montezuma was cautious and didn’t take an aggressive route, but opted to send lavish gifts in attempts to please the Spanish. This is was the best strategy that the Aztecs could employ that the time, because they were incapable of matching the Spanish in a military campaign.
As time progressed and the Spanish’s strategy remained the same, and it was clear to the Aztecs that their goal wouldn’t wavier so they opted for a different strategy. They invited the Spanish to their capitol city of Tenochtitlan as their guests, but planned to ambush them with thousands of soldiers. This strategy now was the best because they had an opportunity to catch the Spanish by surprise. It also aligned with a faster time line because small pox was quickly moving through the native population and the Aztecs were losing numbers.
The Spanish accepted the invitation, wavering from their initial strategy, but Cortes quickly caught on to the ploy and reverted back to the initial Spanish strategy. The Spanish began to attack the Aztecs and sieged Tenochtitlan and within the day they gained control and held Montezuma captive.
In this context, the Spanish had two strategies, the dominant attacking strategy where they would always win and a diplomatic strategy. The Aztecs had an inferior attacking strategy, peace offering strategy, and an ambush strategy. Throughout the course of the Spanish conquest, both sides attempted to use all of their strategies, however, the Spanish’s dominant strategy came out of top.
Sources:
MLA. Diamond, Jared M. Guns, Germs, and Steel : the Fates of Human Societies. New York :Norton, 2005.