Japan-Korea-US Relations and the Impact of Triadic Closure
Still in the wake of the incredibly divisive term of Donald Trump, the United States is in an unusually precarious position with its foreign ties from East Asia. To examine exactly why and how, we first take a deeper look into the role network dynamics – specifically triadic closure – play in the evolution of international cooperation.
I came across a paper on network dynamics and international cooperation by Brandon Kinne (https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/43654033.pdf?refreqid=excelsior%3A6f5a1558017b32e3f2b8b74762197d53), which describes exactly this. To simplify the arbitrarily complex network of x-lateral relations, I will focus my attention on bilateral cooperation (which outnumbers multilateral agreements 10:1 anyways) (Kinne). Bilateral cooperation can be explained via the age-old idea that the enemy of my enemy is my friend. This translates well into a discussion of positive and negative relationships and how even these complex multilateral configurations can present themselves in the form of balanced triangles (Halpern, Easley 127). Triadic closure can also offer a good explanation for how these relationships form. Kinne argues that states are more likely to form bilateral cooperation agreements when they share a mutual existing partner. An intuitive way of understanding this is noting that a mutual ally is a mechanism of information – that is, both parties have a sense of the other’s “capacity for compliance and trustworthiness” (Kinne) through their relationship with the shared third party. This concept is precisely that which we applied to social networks and friendship dynamics in class – when 2 edges of a triangle exist in the relationship network, the third is likely to form. I believe Kinne’s ideas regarding why bilateral agreements form are well illustrated in the Japan-Korea relationship.
With a sense of mistrust and general animosity dating from before the second world war, these two nations do not see eye to eye on many critical issues, including military goals and especially in more recent years, how to effectively deal with neighboring superpowers China and North Korea. In the 1960’s, things took an interesting turn as the United States became increasingly obsessed with containing the communist aggression throughout east Asia. With existing agreements with both Japan and South Korea independently, the United States realized the importance of both nations in regional security and its own global positioning. To both Korea and Japan, the US’s relationship with the other served as the proof of credibility and value Kinne emphasizes, and by 1965, Japan and the Republic of Korea had signed a treaty on basic relations. Through the rest of the century and into the 2000s, the US-Korea-Japan trilateral relationship strengthened, as parties signed treaties to share military intelligence and offer mutual logistical support. Though all 3 wish to mitigate the North Korean threat, the United States very much still is the conduit in Japan-Korea relations.
Critically, during his presidency, I believe Trump neglected the United States’ relations with both. Japan’s concerns over human rights were not mentioned during Trump’s negotiations with North Korea. Similarly, his attention was entirely focused on intercontinental ballistic missiles, with little concern about medium range missiles which could prove devastating for both Korea and Japan. With trust between the US and each of its partners in a dangerous state, the bond between Korea and Japan, formed through triadic closure, is also at risk. I postulate that while triadic closure can bring mutual allies together, the diffusion of key relationships can take away the reasons for cooperation and threaten bilateral agreements formed as a result of triadic closure. Today, it is the responsibility of the Biden administration to reconcile two crucial allies in order to facilitate a secure and stable Indo-Pacific.
Additional resources:
https://thediplomat.com/2021/01/the-us-role-in-south-korea-japan-relations-from-johnson-to-biden/