Social Networks, Diffusion and Flattening the Curve
Primary sources consulted:
https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200604-what-to-do-with-friends-who-dont-social-distance
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0898-6
A summary:
Within the branching process model used to predict the spread of infectious diseases, I found that the model relies completely on social networks, the same networks we’ve been studying all semester. I wanted to investigate the link between social networks and the concept of diffusion we’ve discussed in lecture, which, in this case, would entail the adoption of life-saving preventive methods to battle the spread of Covid-19 in the United States. Instead of technology, I’m focusing on the diffusion of behaviors in a social network. I’m going to investigate what predicts whether or not people adopt preventive measures as well as the point at which the diffusion of social distancing behaviors becomes sufficient enough to combat the highly contagious Covid-19.
A portion of the first article cited delves into why people either chose to social distance or chose to ignore restrictions altogether. In other words, why do some adopt these new behaviors? Why do some friend groups see a complete diffusion of social distancing behavior while other circles throw caution to the wind? Researchers from Sweden’s Lund University found that the likelihood of whether or not people adopted social distancing behaviors rested in how they viewed the benefits to doing so. Though social distancing certainly benefits the individual in a sense, its greatest benefit is to others. Adopting behaviors when the benefit of doing so is for others is considered “pro-social” behavior. Through gamification and surveys researchers were able to determine how often people would disregard the welfare of others to, for example, win more money in a game-based experiment.
The second article looks at how network-based behaviors that incorporate social distancing principles can be effective against the spread of Covid-19.
Novel Takeaways:
First, the adoption of social distancing behaviors and other precautionary measures must be made all members of one’s social network because the payoff is quite literally one’s health. Given the branching process model by which Covid-19 spreads, even a single node in a social network (a friend, associate, a family member) who neglects to adopt the new behaviors poses a threat to the welfare of a vast network.
Second, successful diffusion of social distancing behaviors is based entirely on individuals being “pro-social,” meaning they are in favor of the payoff for adopting social distancing behaviors being that it benefits others primarily, rather than themselves. We can see this reflected in countries where concern for the community’s welfare trumps individualism and how they are able to contain the spread of Covid-19 far more effectively than places where consideration for the individual is placed above all, and where the individual considers adopting a new behavior only when the payoff benefits themselves.
How it’s relevant:
The salient nature of the current pandemic makes the concept of diffusion in terms of social distancing incredibly pertinent and important. In case of the pandemic, it is crucial that social distancing behaviors permeate every corner of a social network in order to be effective at all in protecting the members of that network from Covid-19. This is the aim, of course, of mask wearing, social distancing and staying home, but the scale at which these behaviors are required necessitates proper intervention by the government. This is accomplished by paying people to stay home, staying evictions, closing public places, etc. Until that occurs, the level of diffusion needed will never take place.