Cascades As A Cause For WWI
YouTube Video Source: https://youtu.be/6FgaL0xIazk
When people think about the causes of WWI, the assasination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand and the chain reaction it caused comes to mind. Yet the causes of WWI are much more complex than just this single event. Some of these are touched on in the linked YouTube video, where additional background is given to the events that started the great war. What occurred is surprisingly similar to the cascade model, yet the consequences cost hundreds of thousands of lives. The war might well have been avoided through diplomatic action, but the network of Europe would cascade into war anyways.
The cascade of war was arguably enabled by the “blank cheque” agreement by Germany mentioned at 0:56. Germany pledged to support Austria-Hungary in any military conflict against Serbia, unconditionally. Germany’s payoffs for going to war and not going to war were then closely tied to the actions of Austria-Hungary. At the same time, pressure for war increased on the Emperor of Austria-Hungary, Franz Josef, as well. At 1:35, it is noted that the prime war-hawk in the Austro-Hungarian government, Conrad Von Hötzendorf, was previously counteracted by calls for peace from Archduke Franz Ferdinand, who had just been assassinated. In the cascade model, one of Franz Josef’s neighbors, the Archduke, was removed, and Hötzendorf’s relative influence on the Kaiser increased, moving him further towards war.
The promise of German support probably increased the payoff for Austria-Hungary in the event they declared war, as they would have an additional neighbor who would switch to war should Austria-Hungary switch to war. Austria-Hungary counts on this support, and at 4:37 in the video it is noted that Austria-Hungary continues to move towards war despite the total lack of evidence of Serbia being involved in the assasination of the Archduke. It seems as though the pledge of German support- the promise of switching to the “new behavior” should Austria-Hungary switch to it, all but guaranteed that Austria-Hungary would be the initial adopter of the behavior, that they would declare war.
This is reaffirmed at 6:05, when it is noted that Austria-Hungary refused to engage in diplomatic talks facilitated by either Russia or the United Kingdom. Serbia also agreed to nearly all of Austria-Hungary’s demands in its ultimatum, which Kaiser Wilhelm of Germany believed would avoid war. Yet, Austria-Hungary declares war anyways, and pulls all of Europe into conflict. Austria-Hungary was the “initial adopter” in this network, the first to declare war. However, it can be argued that it was the actions of Germany and internal politics within Austria-Hungary that caused it to become an initial adopter.
This behavior may suggest that there are multiple layers of networks affecting each other. One network was the internal politics of Austria Hungary, where advisors pushed the Kaiser towards war. Another layer existed between Germany and Austria-Hungary, in which Germany had promised to support Austria-Hungary unconditionally. These factors combined to affect the network of Europe at large, where Austria-Hungary became the initial adopter of war, cascading to all of the major powers. It is a certainty that the causes of World War I were not one event leading to another, but a complex structure of networks that cascaded to create one of the worst conflicts the world has ever seen.