Examining Balance Theory with the Two Korea’s International Relationship
https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/05/13/peninsula-of-paradoxes-south-korean-public-opinion-on-unification-and-outside-powers-pub-81737
Balance Theorem, a psychological and sociological theory that demonstrates that the balance of nodes is achieved through unified friendship or two hostile groups, has been proven and applied in many events of foreign relations, notably the Cold War. Supposing that the nations involved in the Cold War was a balanced graph, there were two major groups, the United States and its allies, and the Soviet Union and its allies. The allies of the respective nations, as stated in the balance theorem, were allies with countries within the same group, and enemies with the other group. Even since the end of the Cold War (and with the triumph of the United States) in 1991, we could examine the remnants of this relationship with the two divided states: North Korea and South Korea.
In this journal article published by Carnegie Endowment by International Peace, Chung Min Lee, an expert on Northeast Asian security, comments on the previous and current political tensions between North Korea and South Korea. On the surface, there is an historical and ongoing animosity between North Korea (and its “allies”) and South Korea (and its “allies”). Supposing that the world is balanced, North Korea’s current allies–China, representatively–would have a negative relationship with South Korea. In contrast, South Korea’s allies–representatively the US–would have a negative relationship with North Korea (and China). This is particularly examined with the recent US-China’s trade war; even though the tension of North Korea and South Korea may not be the main driving factor behind the initiation of the trade war, the trade war can definitely be evidence of the two separate groups of team North Korea versus team South Korea.
Figure 1. Graph that explains the power balance between North Korea (NK), South Korea (SK), and their respective allies (US and China (CHN)). Original work.
What is even more intriguing is that the balance theorem explains the “swapping” of the type of relationships that South Korea has with other nations. Japan, a neighboring country of both China and South Korea, is the best example of this. Korea, historically, has had many wars and torn relationships with Japan. For example, Japan has invaded Korea on two occasions, with the second invasion resulting into Korea entering into a 36-year Japanese colonial rule during World War 2. From this, we could see that Korea traditionally has a negative relationship with Japan. However, during the Korean War, Japan has become allies with the United States, and this has automatically resulted into a negative relationship between North Korea and Japan. Since South Korea and North Korea have a negative relationship, this resulted in South Korea having a positive relationship with Japan: an “enemy of my enemy is my friend” type balanced relationship.
Figure 2. Three graphs representing the change in the type of link between Korea (KR, SK) and Japan (JPN). The left graph represents the relationship during pre-Cold War, the middle graph represents the established relationships before SK-JPN alliance, and the right graph represents the change in SK-JPN relationship.
Amidst these observations that arose with the relationship between North Korea and South Korea (and the allies of these two countries), there is certainly a paradoxical relationship that does not make the simplified diagrams necessarily true. First, the aforementioned “allies”–Korea and Japan–is not necessarily an amicable relationship. In fact, Lee’s research demonstrates that 29.3 percent of the surveyees responded that Japan would be the biggest threat to a unified Korea after China (54.4 percent). Because of historic relations with Japan, it is questionable to simply conclude that Japan and South Korea (or a hypothetical unified Korea) would be positive. The recent trade war between Japan and South Korea last year makes the Japan-South Korea relationship ambiguous (Harding). Further, although previously noted that China-North Korean relationships are positive, this relationship is also in question. With recent nuclear tests being conducted in North Korea, China’s stance towards North Korea has changed–in 2018, Chinese imports and exports dropped 88 percent and 33 percent, respectively (“Understanding the China-North Korea Relationship”).
While recent tensions can be marked as a qualification to the diagram provided above, this could also serve as a sign of unbalance; such relationships only hold when the graph is balanced, yet the world and diplomatic relationships are ever changing, and such bilateral (and multilateral) relationships are not set in stone. Another example of the signs of unbalance can be the recent bilateral peace talks between North Korea and South Korea and North Korea and the United States. With these signals of change, we might expect a different type of graph in the near future, and it is always going to excite the world of international relations and diplomacy.
Works Cited:
Harding, Robin. “Divided by History: Why Japan-South Korea Ties Have Soured.” Subscribe to Read | Financial Times, Financial Times, 24 Oct. 2019, www.ft.com/content/13a3ff9a-f3ed-11e9-a79c-bc9acae3b654.
Lee, Chung Min. “A Peninsula of Paradoxes: South Korean Public Opinion on Unification and Outside Powers.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 13 May 2020, carnegieendowment.org/2020/05/13/peninsula-of-paradoxes-south-korean-public-opinion-on-unification-and-outside-powers-pub-81737.
“Understanding the China-North Korea Relationship.” Council on Foreign Relations, Council on Foreign Relations, www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-north-korea-relationship.