Game Theory: Moon v.s. the Prosecution
Currently, South Korea is undergoing serious political conflicts and debates, especially around the newly commissioned Minister of Justice Kuk Cho. Cho was accused of serious moral defects and illegal behaviors even before his appointment, including establishing a paper company to conceal his wealth and transfer his money to his children without paying taxes. Also, he is accused of a case of authority abuse in which he obtained the information about Seoul city’s new project on public Wi-fi and Smart Streetlight before an official announcement and invested in stocks of the designated companies when he was serving as a Senior Secretary to the President for Civil Affairs.
Myriads of other accusations are still remaining, but I’d like to focus on the possible application of game theory into the situation: a game between President Moon and the Prosecution.
President Moon has 3 options: keeping him on the position, dismissing him, and bribing the prosecution. The Prosecution has 2 options: continuing the investigation and accepting the bribe to stop the investigation.
When President Moon decides to keep Cho on the position without bribing the prosecutors, the Prosecution only have one option—continuing the investigation. In this case, Cho will eventually be sentenced of guilt, and it will result in the massive collapse of trust and support for Moon among the public. At the same time, the Prosecution will be honored for not submitting to the power. Let’s say the payoff is -100 and 10.
When Moon decides to dismiss Cho, the Prosecution only have one option as well. In this case, Moon will not experience damage comparable to the previous option. The payoff here might be -40 and 10.
When Moon decides to bribe prosecutors, they have 2 options: not accepting the bribe and accepting the bribe. When the prosecutors do not accept the bribe, they will release the news to the public, and the opposition parties will have the opportunity to push him into the corner. In the worst case, Moon might be impeached as well. The prosecutors might be honored even more for their rectitude and justice. In this case, the payoff here is -∞ and 20. However, when the prosecutors accept it, it will result in the lowest damage to Moon. However, the prosecutors will receive sever criticism from media, public, the opposite political party, and etc. Thus, the payoff would be -20 and 0.
Nash equilibrium here should be (Dismiss, Keep investigation), but Moon is not dismissing him, so we need to further consider whether we have other factors that might contribute to the game.
Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-23/south-korea-justice-minister-s-home-raided-amid-graft-probes