Boris Johnson, Brexit, and Modern Madman Theory
The term “madman theory” has come back into relevance to describe U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s strategy of nuclear confrontation when handling Brexit. The term “madman theory” was first coined to describe U.S. President Richard Nixon’s unbridled strategy in dealing with the Soviet Union during the height of the Cold War. Antonio Cabrales, an economics and game theory professor at University College London, claims that Johnson has thrown this term back into contemporary relevance with his brash threat to let Donald Trump deal with Brexit.
So, what is madman theory? Generally, game theory is the study of the array of potential choices multiple parties can make and the potential outcomes and effects they can have on each other. These opponents are usually considered to be normal or “rational”. However, the “game” is completely changed when one party abandons rationality for the madman approach. “Madman theory” is when one opponent stops choosing orthodox and straightforward ways of handling a situation. A person using “madman theory” acts chaotic and unpredictable to scare one’s opponents into submitting to one’s agenda. While this strategy is dangerous and, in many cases, immoral, it has been used numerous times by powerful countries and politicians throughout history in order to break stalemates with opponents.
Despite its underwhelming size, the United Kingdom accounted for about 80% of the European Union’s economic activity before the U.K. signed Article 50 to leave the economic partnership. If the U.K. successfully leaves the E.U., British businesses will have more limited access to European markets and will most likely have to build subsidiaries in foreign countries to be able to continue to compete internationally. This will be extremely costly and cumbersome for British businesses. Additionally, free movement of people, goods, and services over English-Irish border will end, effecting thousands who commute from one country to the other for work, etc. These issues, among many more, are cause for much debate and negotiation which has led to a stalemate in Brexit agreements. Johnson’s “madman” approach might be the only way for him to get Brexit his way.
In order for Johnson to have the deal he wants, he is threatening an alternative almost nuclear “No-Deal” Brexit in which no agreements will be made between the U.K., Brussels, and the rest of the E.U. and trade will come to a hard stop as the U.K. adjusts to being a completely economically independent nation. For this “No-Deal” nuke to be a believable threat, Johnson must prove that the only other option is the way that he wants to do it. To prove this binary ultimatum to the E.U., Johnson needs what game theory experts call a “commitment device” which removes any external options from the table. Right now, Johnson is being pressured to stand down by British Parliament. Because of this, he has closed Parliament and insisted that October 31 is the deadline to reach an agreement with the E.U. With Parliament potentially in one hand, it is only a matter of time before Boris Johnson has the nuclear launch button that will demolish European business in the other.
Sources:
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-brexit-game-theory
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/12/ireland-brexit-171213121309274.html