The Influence of Information Networks Over Voting Outcomes
http://news.mit.edu/2019/information-gerrymandering-influences-voters-0904
A recent study designed by MIT scholars aims to understand the influence that information networks have over individual decisions. In particular, the study examines the impact of political information on voter behavior, proving that different information networks can increase the chance of electoral deadlock or bias overall election outcomes in favor of one party. The results show that “information gerrymandering,” the act of establishing a political advantage for a particular group by manipulating voter information, can bias the outcome so that one party wins up to 60% of the time in simulated elections.
The study consisted of over 2,000 participants divided into two teams, meant to represent two opposing political parties. The participants played a voter game in different conditions, in response to continually updated polling data information. The study used payoffs as incentive to produce certain outcomes – a team would receive a large payoff if their own team received a super-majority share, a smaller payoff if the opposing team received the super-majority share, and zero payoff if neither team did. The data showed that participants voted for their own party when the polling data showed they had a chance of a super-majority, or if it showed a deadlock was likely. However, if the opposing party was likely to win, half the players would vote for the opposing team, and the other half would continue to vote for their own team.
The study manipulated information through information gerrymandering, in which some members of one team were “placed inside the other team’s echo chamber,” and through deploying online bots that strongly supported one team over the other. The results showed that election outcomes could be strongly biased based on how the polling information was distributed over the networks. When members of one team were led to believe that most of their team were voting for the opposing party, they often switched their votes to avoid a deadlock and receive a payoff.
The results of this study are consistent with the ideas of game theory that we covered in class. In this case, participants will choose their voting strategy based on the knowledge they are given. Their main concern is to avoid a deadlock in order to receive some sort of payoff – if the other team is likely to win, their best strategy is to vote for the other team. This shows that players choose their best strategy based on the information they are given for voting outcomes.