Pathways for Unlikely Candidates to Succeed
The third Democratic presidential primary debate happened last night (9/12/19), with poll-frontrunners Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders at center stage. While performances in this and future debates, as well as unforeseen circumstances, may affect polling percentages, these three candidates have steadily remained at the top of national polls in recent weeks. Analysis from multiple sources (linked below) consider additional factors, like endorsements and donations, to create a “top-tier” of candidates likely to win the nomination: Biden, Warren, Sanders, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg. The five remaining candidates from last night’s debate have continued to poll in the low single digits.
Since these top five candidates appeal to many facets of the Democratic party, it is unlikely for the remaining candidates to see a surge in favorability. However, viewing this situation through the lens of game theory allows us to evaluate—to a certain extent—the chances that candidates outside the top three will win the nomination. If we view each candidate as a player, each mishap by a frontrunner a strategy, and how each candidate is affected by this strategy in terms of polling a payoff, we can begin to understand how unlikely nominees would be able to succeed.
According to the Economist article, much of Biden’s appeal comes from his “electability” and experience as a two-term Vice President. Warren, who holds much more progressive positions than Biden, has the support of prediction markets, as well as younger and college-educated voters, and is more closely tied to the establishment (as opposed to Sanders). Sanders is similar to Warren in the sense that he is a progressive candidate that is popular among younger voters, but polls better with non-college voters.
Since Harris presents herself as both a progressive (in terms of policy) and a centrist (in regards to her ties with the establishment), she stands to benefit if either Biden’s or Warren’s campaign falters. Among black voters, Biden is currently the top candidate—something that may turn in Harris’ favor, especially after debate controversies regarding Biden’s comments on busing and the legacy of slavery. Harris also stands to benefit if Warren falters with college-educated voters. As Harris is currently ranked fourth in most national polls, she has the most to gain from the fall of any front-runner, but especially Biden.
As the two most progressive candidates, Warren and Sanders share a similar appeal and will likely benefit from the other candidate’s mishaps. While Buttigieg also benefits from the fall of any candidate currently polling higher than him, his highest chance of winning the nomination comes specifically from the demise of Biden’s campaign, as he falls into a category more closely aligned with Biden than with the more progressive candidates. Since Buttigieg and Harris are currently in the “top 5” of primary candidates, their payoffs are higher than that of any candidates polling less than them. However, for the time being, as long as nothing drastic happens, the top three candidates will likely remain within the top three, and minimal shifting within polling ranks will occur.
https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2019/09/03/how-the-democratic-field-is-narrowing
fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-really-a-three-candidate-race/
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/02/democratic-candidates-primary-2020-1479230