A Presidential Information Cascade
Article link: http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/10/why-republicans-are-flip-flopping-on-their-endorsements/503930/
It is human tendency to copy others. Whether we like it or not, there aren’t many “path setters” in this world. People are always searching for a safe, easy solution, which they achieve by following the accepted paths set by others. Regarding the recent 2016 Presidential Election, it is evident that when deciding who to vote for, many indecisive Americans kept changing their opinions, as new information about the candidates kept rolling through. With this new information, people started copying those who withdrew their endorsements for the given candidate
In the article titled “Why Republicans Are Flip-Flopping on Their Endorsements,” the author, Andrew McGill, examines the science behind supporting Donald Trump. Most republicans started off headstrong, endorsing Donald Trump. However, when the 2005 video clip of Trump criticizing women and spitting out offensive remarks was released, many Republican-elected officials renounced their support for Trump. In Networks, we’ve studied Information Cascades, which occur when an individual observes the actions of others and then copies this same behavior, ignoring his/her own private information signals. Similar to the urn example we discussed in class, early decisions by the first few Republicans who un-endorsed Trump made other Republicans ignore their own personal opinions and join the bandwagon, copying those who relinquished their support for the Republican candidate.
People tend to copy others’ behaviors so that they’re not alone. If your friends all support one candidate, they’re the ones you’re engaging in day-to-day conversations with, so your political beliefs may tend to sway towards theirs, in order to be accepted. The release of the 2005 video clip was new information that led to several anti-Trump Americans. According to the author of the article, “You had a couple people who made very public, very well-documented un-endorsements, and other people started doing it.” Large crowds jumped to this conclusion early, demonstrating the Information Cascade. While this conclusion could be wrong, it was undoubtedly rational, as many surrounding Americans did the same thing – refused to support him.