How do networks shape the spread of disease and gossip?
http://medicalxpress.com/news/2015-07-networks-disease-gossip.html
This article talks about a new way in which researchers are studying the spread of disease and gossip. The initial assumption was similar to what we examined in class, and the article explained that simple waves were used to understand spreading contagion. Instead of examining only the spatial spread through waves, researchers in London examined the spread of contagion based on the subway lines as an underlying city network. What researchers found was an interesting idea of “stubborn” and “accepting” nodes across the map. The type of spread was heavily dependent on sensitivity, and as expected, “stubborn” areas resisted spread. They examined unique moderate zones where there were neither high “stubborn” or “accepting” responses and found that these areas had spread most like pure waves. So based on the where the contagion began, researchers had a better idea of the types of trends in spread the contagion would take.
This directly links with our recent discussion on how epidemic happens and what the spread looks like. I’m very curious to see what the R0 values look like as the spread of disease expands in these models. My guess is that they would definitely be over 1 at the beginning, but it is not clear when enough people have already been infected that the R0 moves below one. I’m also curious to see what the implications are for preventing spread. With this model, will disease fighters be able to more readily predict spread based on the aforementioned sensitivities and more quickly stamp out different forms of contagion?