Revolutionary Information Cascades
In this article, York University Professor Merouan Mekouar explains the critical role Information Cascades played during the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings. The author contrasts the successful revolutions, resulting in the overthrow of long-time despotic dictators, in Libya and Egypt with the unsuccessful protests in Morocco and Algeria. In the case of the Libyan and Egyptian uprisings, people in places of power and influence in both countries joined the sides of the protests, leading the dissidents to believe that momentum was on their side. This belief started an information cascade, with more and more people believing that revolution was inevitable, leading to increasing numbers of people joining the uprisings. On the other hand, uprisings in Morocco and Algeria never reached a critical number of participants due to the lack of participating influential people. This meant that there was very little news spread between protesters, leaving each group feeling isolated and without hope. As an information cascade failed to start, the uprisings quickly fizzled out.
In class we have been learning about the wisdom of crowds and information cascades as they pertain to markets. However information cascades are also an extremely important factor to consider politically. A general belief in on candidate or on side’s ability to win may be all it takes for that faction or candidate to achieve victory. Also, with the impact of social media on today’s society, information cascades can happen quicker than ever before.