Information Cascades and the recent Congressional Elections
Information Cascades and the recent Congressional Elections
Information cascades occur when people join the crowd regardless of their own private information. Recently, the Congressional elections took place, where there were 471 seats total up for election. The Republicans gained a vast majority of the seats in both the House and the Senate. This is pretty unusual, because typically if one house has a majority, it is by a small margin. The House of Representatives now has 244 Republic seats and 144 Democratic seats, and the Senate now has 52 Republican seats and 44 Democratic seats. According to Source 1 listed below, going into the election, the Senate was controlled by the Democratic Party, while the GOP had the lead in the House of Representatives. According to Source 2, of the remaining 7 districts that are too close to call, 5 could change hands from Democratic to GOP, and if the Republicans gain at least 1 of the 5 seats, they will achieve the largest majority in the House since 1928.
Although the Republicans did expect to achieve good results, a much closer race was expected. The clean sweep the Republicans achieved was not predicted. An information cascade can in part explain the results of these elections. For the past few years, there has been steadily decreasing approval of President Obama, of the Democratic Party. When the general public saw the dropping poll numbers and approval rating of the president, they were probably influenced to vote Republican, i.e. they wanted a change because of the low ratings, and thus did not want to vote for a candidate of the same party as the president. The results of the election in part reflected a backlash against the past few years of Democratic control and certain elements of the Obama presidency. Many people put significant blame on the Affordable Care Act and economic conditions. Prior to the midterm election, 54% of Americans said they were not happy with the President. According to Source 3, while the approval rating was not Obama’s all time low, many political experts agree that his unpopularity helped Republicans take control of the Senate, widen their hold on the House, and even win several close governors races. The Wall Street Journal, linked below, states that many people claimed to have cast votes in opposition to one candidate or party rather than in support of the other.
Information cascades can explain the results because often times, people tend to vote for the party that is predicted to do well, so as to be on the “winner’s side.” In this election, the Republicans were predicted to gain a few seats (though not as many as they did), and thus Americans were influenced by this information. In information cascades, individuals infer from others’ decisions. Because of time zones, different parts of the US begin broadcasting their results, updating the polls frequently, while others are still waiting to vote, and while polls are still open in other parts of the country. For example, in 1980, NBC News declared Ronald Reagan to be the winner of the presidential election several hours before the polls closed, simply based on the incoming results. Poll results can significantly influence election results, especially in those that are closely contested. Polls showing that one candidate is in the lead often increases his or her margin. When people are exposed to poll results, people who were tending to vote for one candidate often change their minds and vote for the other. This is what occurred in the 1992 presidential election with Bill Clinton and George H. W. Bush. So, when TV and radio programs broadcast intermediate poll results, and update the results frequently, and when the offer their predictions, or when they broadcast live results, people get influenced. In this election, when it was heard that a Republican seat had been gained in one state, voters in another state could have very easily been influenced and may have voted differently than they otherwise would have.
Thus, although there are several factors that led to the outcome of this presidential election, an information cascade does in part explain why the Republicans won by such an unexpectedly large margin.
Source 1: http://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Congress_elections,_2014
Source 2: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2014
Source 3: http://www.ibtimes.com/obama-job-approval-ratings-president-presidential-low-during-midterms-1721004
Source 4: http://online.wsj.com/articles/republicans-seize-control-of-house-senate-1415102831?tesla=y