Vanishing Flights Found Using Bayes’ Theorem?
March 8th, 2014 a Malaysian Flight took off from Kuala Lumpur International Airport, Malaysia to Beijing Capital International Airport, People’s Republic of China. Shortly after it took off, connection between the air traffic control station and the flight 370 was lost. After several months of searching, we are still unable to find where it may have disappeared. As of October 26, over 150,000 square kilometers (58,000 sq mi) of seafloor have been surveyed and still no sign of the plane. So in efforts to find it, a question that may be asked is what is the best approach or what approach has worked in the past?
Similarly in 2009, Air France Flight 447 from Rio De Janero to Paris disappeared over the Atlantic Ocean and a search for it become one of the most expensive and exhaustive searches in recent memory. Eventually, when thoughts of giving up occurred, the black box was found soon after by from a familiar equation know to mathematicians and scientists everywhere. Bayes’ Theorem. The claim was that with the simple math theorem, they were able to determine the location of the black box, remarkably. The idea was that the equation is based on hypothesis, and it doesn’t matter how good that hypothesis because it can continually be updated and improved. When any extra information came through the door, they would add it to the formula and by piecing all information together from wind speed to current direction, Bayes Theorem was able to help answer where the box would most likely be. We know from class that Bayes’ theorem determines the percentage of an event given certain occurrences and can be translated to this search by figuring out the possibilities it ended up given all the information I mentioned prior.
It is clear to see that Bayes’ Theorem is applicable to multiple situations, even behind the common occurrences. Although there are arguments that Bayes’ was not applied correctly because past experiences were not accurate, the idea behind it is still on par and relevant. It is remarkable to think that if we can find a missing plane of 2 years using Bayes’, what else it could be used for to assist in determining other events.
Source: http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/3/12/mathematical-equationcouldhelpfindmissingmalaysianplane.html