Metagaming
In competitive events, players often go to great lengths to get an advantage over the competition. In long distance running, for example, athletes will train at high altitudes to get used to low amounts of oxygen, and thus have increased performance at low altitudes. In chess, and other, similar, games, there is a different strategy: taking advantage of the metagame.
The metagame is, generally, the state of the game beyond the scope of the standard rules. For example, in chess, if most players rely heavily on Rooks rather than Knights and Pawns, the metagame could be thought of as tilted toward Rook usage. Alternatively, if many players are focussing on very aggressive openings and quicker games, the metagame is faster than in a scenario in which the prevailing strategy is to play conservatively. Clearly, knowing what the current metagame is, and using it to anticipate your opponent’s moves can be a very powerful tool.
In chess, for example, if you see someone play three or for games in a row, and in each he or she plays very aggressively, you might play extra conservatively when you face him or her. Using this knowledge of the local metagame, you have gained an advantage over your opponent.
While guessing about opponent behavior in the short run can give you an advantage, it is also interesting to look at long run trends. In the article above by Randal Olson, he points out that in competitive chess, in 1850 there was an average of one piece captured every 4 turns. In 2014 there was an average of one piece captured every 5 turns. In between there has been a gradual decline in the number of pieces captured per turn. This is a result of players focussing more on board control than piece capturing. Similarly, Rooks have been rising in popularity since 1970, and Pawns and Knights have been falling in use over the same period.
Understanding the current metagame is especially important in many video games. Take, for example, the card game Hearthstone. To simplify things quite a bit, there are, in general, three prevailaing types of deck that are used. Aggro decks, which are based around winning in the first few turns. Midrange decks, which look to win between 5 and 8 turns into the game, and control decks, which look to win after 10+ turns. These three types of playstyle create a sort of rock-paper-scissors. Midrange beats aggro, control beats midrange, and aggro beats control. Thusly, and a clever player might realize that in a given period most of his or her opponents are playing midrange decks, so it would be smart to use a control deck. As more and more players realize this, the percentage of players using midrange decks falls, and people start to play aggro decks, to take advantage of the rising number of control decks.
When taking the metagame into account, it is often advantageous to make a play that would otherwise be considered suboptimal. Going back to chess, consider the very aggressive opponent. You might have to begin preparing for the aggression before it is clear that your opponent actually will be playing aggressively. Perhaps this means not using an opening you are more comfortable with. Perhaps it cripples you against non-aggressive openings. Regardless, the metagame is something to consider when looking to make the best decision.