15 May 2020

Another week, another roughly 3 million initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims made in the U.S. – more than 200,000 of which came from New York State.

After eight weeks of following these numbers, we realize that folks might be becoming somewhat desensitized to them. After all, every week seems to bring another reminder that we are in “unprecedented” territory.

The reason for these regular reminders, of course, is that we are in an unprecedented crisis. Consider that, per yesterday’s U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) data release, the total number of UI claims made in New York State since mid-March has now surpassed 2 million. To put that figure in perspective, the combined population of New York’s 26 largest municipalities excluding New York City is estimated to be 2,005,983 persons. In other words, the State’s labor market has shed about 26 cities’ worth of jobs in a little less than two full months. On average, the number of UI claims made each week is about equal to the population of the City of Buffalo.

How, with numbers like those, is it possible to become desensitized? Well, for one thing, the number of weekly claims has been trending downward. For the U.S. as a whole, weekly UI claims have now fallen for six consecutive weeks. After peaking at around 6.9 million claims during the week ending 28 March, the total dropped this past week to an in-pandemic low of just under 3 million. Even White House economists have interpreted this change as a sign that things are moving in a positive direction.

That being said, that the number of claims is now meaningfully lower than what it peaked at a few weeks ago is not a reason to step aside and wait for things to somehow bounce back to normal. If it were not clear enough, the fact that we are still observing millions of new UI claims every week is far – so very far – from normal. Back in March, we rightly viewed 3 million weekly UI claims in catastrophic terms. We need to recapture that level of determination and, in doing so, redouble our investments into direct aid and social support in this time of crisis. The scale of the COVID-19 pandemic mandates an “expanded safety net” that broadly and generously funds “all major programs” and better targets assistance to the neediest households.

Finally, just as 3 million weekly UI claims is still a catastrophic figure for the nation, 200,000 weekly claims is devastating for New York State. What is even more troubling for New York is that it hasn’t experienced the sustained week-to-week decreases that characterize the national trend. In fact, New York has yet to experience even back-to-back weekly drops in UI claims. For the third straight time, the latest DOL data show that initial unemployment claims in the state ticked up after experiencing a one-off week-over-week drop. That claims have not yet locked onto the same consistent downward trajectory that we can see at the national level lends credibility to speculation that the unemployment situation in New York may be even more extreme than the U.S. average (recall that the current national unemployment rate is estimated to be around 15%). As such, there will be plenty to unpack when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases its State Employment and Unemployment data a week from today. Check back here for coverage of that release.

Week-to-week changes in UI claims in the U.S. and New York State, since 21 March 2020