For weeks, analysts and the media have been speculating on what the April 2020 Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) might say about the magnitude of COVID-19’s impacts on jobs and the economy. As of about an hour ago, the numbers are in…

• The official unemployment rate soared to 14.7%, up from 4.4% in March 2020. For reference, the unemployment rate in April 2019 was 3.3% (unadjusted). Initial take: While the official unemployment rate did not hit the 18% to 20% range that many were expecting (yet, anyway), the April estimate is still the highest figure on record since the Great Depression. During the more recent Great Recession, unemployment peaked around 10% in October 2009.
• More than one-fifth of the civilian labor force* is underutilized. More specifically, 22.8% of the labor force* is either unemployed, working part time for economic reasons, or “marginally attached” to the labor force (meaning that workers are neither working nor seeking work but would want and take a job if one were available to them). At this time last year, this measure of labor underutilization stood at 6.9%. Last month it was 8.7%. Initial take: This measure, referred to as “U-6”, maxed out at about 17.2% at the end of the Great Recession. U-6 provides a telling look at the extent to which jobs have been suspended or terminated due to COVID-19.
  *The denominator in this measure is technically the civilian labor force plus persons marginally attached to the labor force.
• The employment-population ratio is down to 51.3%, the lowest value on record. Last month, this measure of civilian non-institutionalized persons who have jobs stood at 60%. Initial take: Last April, the employment-population ratio was 62.8%. During the height of the Great Recession, the figure bottomed out at 59.3%, and the minimum value on record is 55% from September 1961. One advantage of looking at the employment-population ratio is that it does not get into the weeds of categorizing who is “actively looking” for work, which is a complicated status even outside of a pandemic. In that sense, it gives a relatively general measure of the jobs landscape…and being at an historically low level is a clear statement about the massive scale of the COVID crisis.
• Nonfarm payroll employment fell by an astronomical 20.5 million since last month. Like the employment-population ratio, this level of employment change is the largest on record. Consistent with knowledge to date, the majority of job losses occurred in the service sector. Employment in leisure and hospitality fell by more than 7.6 million; health care and social assistance employment dropped by nearly 2.1 million; and retail trade jobs fell by over 2.1 million. Goods-producing industries reported nearly 2.4 million fewer payroll employees relative to March 2020. Initial take: These figures are devastating. Throughout the rest of the day today and in the coming days and weeks, there will certainly be in-depth coverage and analysis of COVID’s impacts by sector. While much of that coverage will focus on the private sector industries just described, it’s going to be just as important to analyze changes in public sector employment. Although the numbers are not as stark, government jobs fell by nearly 1 million between March and April 2020; and by over 1 million since February 2020. A shrinking public sector during times of crisis, when strong government leadership and action is most needed, amplifies the economic losses in the private sector and should be of meaningful concern.

Moving forward, more time – and therefore deeper engagements – with the newly released data will allow us to provide more detailed and nuanced responses to these circumstances. For now, it is clear that the current economic moment is unlike any we’ve seen in recent history – including during the depths of Great Recession. Check back for more analyses in the coming days, and for a discussion of what today’s numbers might mean for our recent predictions about April 2020 unemployment in New York State.