Tipping Points in the Upcoming Midterm Elections – Socioeconomic Values as “Prices” in the United States
The precarious state of which political party will be dominant in Congress and the Senate with the approaching midterm election is a timely example of tipping points in network effects. United States voters can be seen as the market for political candidates running for Congress. We can apply the concept of stability to analyze candidates’ goals when it comes to poll ratings. As shown in the Module 5 EdX videos, there is downward pressure when the lower equilibrium (z’) of people who are expected to vote for a candidate occurs. There is upward pressure, or increasing interest, when the number of expected buyers is between the two equilibria, and there is finally downward pressure when the expected fraction goes beyond the higher equilibrium value, or z’’. This makes the tipping point the lower equilibrium value of expected voters; however, this downward pressure makes the value unstable.
In my example from the 2022 midterm race, Democrats have been starkly changing their messages and mission to voters. This change in campaign messaging can be seen as a lowering of the Democratic candidates’ “price.” Biden, over the past few months, has campaigned on the belief that Republican competitors are a “threat to democracy.” However, this narrative has switched more recently; his focus has shifted to the widespread economic concerns among American citizens. His more recent messaging has centered around how he has aided the middle class’s economic state after record-setting inflation and turmoil following the pandemic. This change in campaign messaging can be viewed as a “lowering” of his price, with prices synonymous to his campaign values. When the price gets lowered, so does the tipping point. Because the most important objective to candidates is to attain expectations that are above the unstable tipping point of z’, this shift in campaign messaging to cater to more universal values is a necessary step to garner more votes and achieve stability in their party’s popularity. This “price” lowering ultimately raises people’s expectations of the proportion of United States voters who will go with the Democratic party, thus increasing the actual number of people who will vote Democrat. This objective, however, is easier said than done. The change in campaign messaging arrived quite late into the race, after millions of voters already cast their early ballots. We cannot ascertain which party will surpass the tipping point of z’ until after November 8th votes have been counted.
Positing certain socioeconomic values as “prices” puts certain parties’ longstanding beliefs at the expense of popularity. The phenomenon of having political values as a price begs us to look at the elasticity, or possible lack thereof, of voters’ viewpoints on certain subjects, resulting in uncertainty on whether the population proportion will sway beyond z’. Certain topics like immigration or abortion will inelastically and indubitably strike a chord with certain voters but may have an opposite effect with others due to personal beliefs, experiences, or potential misinformation given to voters; these are all factors out of a candidate’s control. Thus, the understanding of political values as prices in the “voter market” with a tipping point would potentially require models that go beyond the one used in this example, as the inelasticity in certain beliefs among voters creates a unique circumstance.
Sources:
“Biden, Trump in final push to shore up support ahead of midterms.” Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/6/biden-trump-headline-dueling-rallies-ahead-of-us-midterms
“Marketing Products that Have Tipping Points.” Video in Module Five of EdX: Networks, Crowds, and Markets. https://learning.edx.org/course/course-v1:CornellX+INFO2040x+1T2016/block-v1:CornellX+INFO2040x+1T2016+type@sequential+block@a29da7e36d2a4dab8fcb9a83a09e69de/block-v1:CornellX+INFO2040x+1T2016+type@vertical+block@147f698d5cd64a3fb010bc3c69503e75