Covid-19 and Game Theory
Article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/virus-vaccine-game-theory.html
Roberts, Siobhan. “’The Pandemic Is a Prisoner’s Dilemma Game’.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 20 Dec. 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/virus-vaccine-game-theory.html.
This article reviews a research study aimed to give insight into how to save more lives during the Covid-19 Pandemic by applying both an epidemiological model of virus transmission and game theory models to vaccination prioritization. Game theory is a mathematical framework concentrated on how people make decisions within a group context. Furthermore, the Prisoner’s Dilemma is a model in game theory that illustrates why individuals might not cooperate with one another to reach a favorable outcome (due to concerns around betrayal), even when it is in their best interest to do so. Towards the beginning of the pandemic, this research was used to advise officials about which groups needed priority to get vaccinated. When thinking about the relationship between the vaccine, game theory, and an individual’s decision to get vaccinated, the Prisoner’s Dilemma becomes increasingly relevant. These points are how this article relates back to Networks.
Dr.Anand and Dr.Bauch explain that vaccines can work in two ways: direct and indirect protection. Direct protection protects vaccinated individuals while indirect protection protects the contacts of individuals that are vaccinated. The collection of research from the combined models reveals that the earlier the vaccination becomes available, the more effective direct protection will be in preventing deaths compared to an indirect approach. However, the longer it takes for the vaccine to become widely available, the more likely an indirect approach will be more successful. For instance, for low-to-middle-income countries that will not receive the vaccine as fast as wealthier countries, an indirect method is best.
Nonetheless, it is ultimately difficult to derive the most effective or dominant strategy when factoring in how people behave concerning social distancing, mask mandates, traveling, and public health advice. It’s important to note that game theory assumes that players are “rational agents.” While following public health recommendations seems like the best and most rational strategy for the overall common good, many individuals will reason that ‘if enough people are getting vaccinated, why should they need to as well?’ This is where the Prisoner’s Dilemma comes into play. Even though getting vaccinated and accurately following public health recommendations would effectively reduce the rate and risk of infection, people that are undecided about getting vaccinated initiate the dilemma. Lower infection rates and an increase in vaccinated individuals are just two reasons that potentially lead to people deciding against getting vaccinated. Because these individuals get to benefit from a reduced viral transmission without actually getting vaccinated themselves, they get a “free ride,” so to speak. Subsequently, this group then creates a collective threat.
Nash equilibrium is a decision-making theorem in game theory where a player advances with their initial strategy and maximizes their individual payoff, despite knowing an opponent’s strategy. So if individuals all knew what one another was going to do, and were to continue on with their first plan, then according to nash equilibrium, each player’s strategy is optimal because everyone gets the outcome that they desire. Moreover, the article explains that a unique combination of nash equilibrium and altruism will boost awareness beyond nash equilibrium and serve the common good.