How Game Theory Explains The Leaks in Trump’s White House
This article correlates the white house leaks about John McCain’s death to the concept of a Dominant Strategy which we learned about in class. In early May of this year, Trump and his senior officials have been fervently trying to figure out who leaked the comments about John McCain. Trump responded by saying they didn’t matter, because “he’s dying, anyway” but vehemently threatening “traitors and cowards” who leaked the information. Ever since Trump became President, the White House has leaked like a sieve. Game theory provides an explanation of these leaks. The culture of the white house turned the officials in to a similar to the prisoners in the prisoner’s dilemma as we learned in class.
When we learned about the prisoner’s dilemma in class we discussed the payoff for each prisoner’s strategy and chose the one which was best for the prisoners. Similarly certain generalizations and parallels can be made in this scenario.
The officials are technically all playing on the same team, so they have similar interests. It was in the best interest of the team to stay quiet on certain things, such as the terrible remarks about McCain. To compare it to the situation the prisoners face, failing to divulge this information is the same as mutual denial.
However, due to the nature of the Trump White House, it is not always a team. There are ulterior motives and they often discredit their opponents and are worried that their opponents will do the same to them. So they must anticipate and preemptively do things in case of disloyalty. Unlike the prisoners, they are allowed to talk with their rivals, but there is no reason to trust them so it can be seen as the equivalent of the prisoners situation.
There is another version of the prisoner’s dilemma called the Mexican Standoff (read about it here: https://training.simplicable.com/training/new/mexican-standoff-decision-making) in which several bandits with guns confront each other at close quarters. This parallels the position of being a White House official. If you believe your rivals are about to leak some damaging information, getting it out first is a rational form of self-defense. But, even if you don’t think a rival leak is coming, there is an incentive to spread damaging information about your opponents. Just like confessing, leaking is a dominant strategy and it is why it occurs.
Given the atmosphere at the Trump White House, carrying out witch hunts won’t stop the leaking. The only way to address the problem is to change the culture. Relating it back to class, in game theory, you need to alter the rewards and punishments so that cooperation, rather than leaking, emerges as an equilibrium strategy.