Identifying suicide risk factors and evaluating it’s predictive value with the Bayes theorem
Inpatients at psychiatric hospitals are recognized to have a significant risk of suicide, but neither the risk factors nor the predictive power of those factors are well understood. A neural network model based on the Bayes theory of event probability and likelihood ratios was studied to identify suicide risk factors and evaluate its predictive value. […]
Peering into the limits of conditional probability, Bayes Thereom, and statistical application in sociological contexts through Neurodivergent and Queer Individuals
ADHD, Autism, Dyspraxia, and Dyslexia are all under the term “neurodiverse”, and make up roughly 30 percent of the population. Interestingly enough, when looking at queer individuals, that number shot up to 70%, meaning that if you identified as being queer, you are more than twice as likely to identify as neurodiverse. Our sociological models […]
A Case For Political Betting In The US
Political polling for the US election has recently been largely inaccurate as particularly seen in the 2016 Presidential and 2022 Midterm elections (the senate specifically). One popular explanation for the decline in accuracy is polling bias —the demographics of the people who do and don’t answer polling questions. Nonresponse bias for the 2016 election meant […]
Interpreting the Accuracy of Detection of Down Syndrome with the Triple Test using Bayes’ Theorem
Down syndrome (also called trisomy 21), a genetic disorder, is caused when irregular cell division results in extra genetic material from chromosome 21. Approximately 1 in 1000 pregnancies result in Down Syndrome. To date, the most accurate test for down syndrome requires a trial involving the removal and testing of a sample of cells from […]
Game Theory in Hong Kong’s Real Estate Market
The real estate price in Hong Kong has always been a subject of controversy. The paper ‘Why housing price in Hong Kong are so high? An explanation in game theory’ simplifies the housing market in Hong Kong in abstract terms. Before we start the analysis, it would be necessary to provide some background of Hong […]
Web Search and the Wikipedia Game
The wikipedia game is a game that I used to play in computer lab in middle school. We would sit at our computers and all start at the same wikipedia page. Then we would all agree on a random page that we had to get to that doesn’t necessarily have any sort of correlation with […]
Bayes’ Theorem in a Pandemic World
Bayes’ Theorem is one of the fundamental rules in statistics, helping compute the probability of various events and using these calculated probabilities to reason about decision-making. With the COVID-19 pandemic almost fully behind us, we can take the lessons we have learned about how COVID spreads and determine best-course actions for future pandemics. One of […]