Game Theory and the Russian-Ukrainian War
One of the biggest events in our world today is the Russian-Ukrainian war. This conflict has caused worldwide impacts that have impacted the economy and politics greatly. However, what if we could have controlled this war from the beginning? In the article Ukraine war: what game theory can tell us about how negotiations might go, Amelia Hadfield uses game theory to explore different strategies that could have been taken by the West and Russia to reduce the worldwide impacts of the war. Game theory is a type of strategic modeling that shows different outcomes as a result of certain decisions. The Russia-Ukraine war is a great example of a real-life application of game theory. In the article, Hadfield explains that there are three details that one must look at while analyzing the possible strategies for the war: 1) whether there will be escalation or de-escalation, 2) possible reactions from diplomats in the West, 3) the payoff from both sides. To see this visually, Hadfield includes a hyperlink to an article by Scott Johnson and Ziad Daoud which follows the path of each decision through a graph with nodes.
Based on that visual, I created a table to model the results of each path. In my table, 0 represents neutrality, +1 represents a win, -1 represents a loss, and -2 represents a big loss. We use this table to explore some of the concepts we learned in class. One concept that can be seen is th idea of Nash equilibrium. In this situation, the Nash equilibrium would be that Russa de-escalates and, as a result, the West does not put sanctions on them. This would ensure that no side loses, and it seems to be the best option for each side in this scenario.
Although this is the best option theoretically, there are a lot of factors that go into the decisions made in such stressful situations. Sometimes, when diplomats make these decisions, it is possible that they may not even be thinking rationally due to the pressure and emotions that they would be facing. This is one of the issues that Russia is facing. The article explains that Putin and other Russians will not back off because they don’t want to accept a loss. It is human nature to want to win all the time but it is important to be unbiased as well.
Overall, reading these articles, I was able to see a real-life example of game theory that has had a massive impact on our world. It is so interesting to see topics from class discussions making such a huge impact on the world. I think one of the key lessons to take away from this situation is that it is important to not let emotions become too much of a factor when making decisions and to consider all possible options.
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