Power Dynamics in the Nile’s Hydro-Political Conflict
The Nile has served for centuries as the basis of hundreds of civilizations, and continues to be a relied upon resource for industries in various countries surrounding the river: Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea and Kenya. While we are accustomed to the regular availability of water in our surroundings, we forget the impact its availability has in maintaining social and economic stability especially in water scarce nations. In essence, the Nile is an indispensable resource for these African nations, so equitable access to the Nile seems only natural. However, the current Nile agreement is antiquated and exclusionary not considering the importance of reservoir water in the upstream Nile. 70% of all the Nile’s water largely originates in Lake Tana in Ethiopia, while Ethiopia continues to be one of the most constricted countries in the Nile River Basin. So the construction of a dam within the Ethiopian Nile, offers promising development in the nation’s economy, and creates a unique vantage point of being able to control the output of the Nile, something previously unheard. While, this might benefit Ethiopia the decreased water availability in downstream nations, might lead to drought and poverty in Nile reliant communities particularly in Egypt.
This power dynamic revolving the Niles water may be demonstrated through a two nodal figure where node (A) represents Ethiopia and the countries full availability of water, and node (B) represents downstream reliant nations : Egypt and Sudan. The edge between these nodes which flows from (A) to (B) represents the Nile Water Reservoir.
The relationship between these two nodes can thus be simplified into an Ultimatum Game where (A) holds a large amount of the power, as there is no Nash Equilibrium. Ethiopia and the Downstream Nations must reach an agreement, if both nodes continue to reject the proposal the situation might escalate to war, as Egypt has demonstrated increased hostility towards the Ethiopian dam. The situation continues to intensify, with Egyptian and Sudan allocation proposals leave Ethiopia in a deficit, and Ethiopian nationalistic fervor over the dam’s promising impact show general apathy towards conceding the Nile.
Although much more intricate than this simplified dynamic, Ethiopia attempts to reclaim the Nile to their benefit after decades of Egyptian and Sudan domination over the Nile’s resources. Demonstrating the geopolitical stronghold the Nile has over this region’s stability and development.
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/03/world-attention-ukraine-nile-dam-conflict-escalates
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2020/grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-egypt-nile/