Prisoner’s Dilemma in Football
This week marks the opening week of the 2022 NFL Season. Typically people see football as a game of brute force; however, I believe football should be seen as a chess match. As the saying goes, “Any given Sunday,” the team with the better and stronger players does not always win; instead, it is the team with the better strategy. Sometimes the NFL places two of its teams into game theory situations. Week 18 of the 2021 NFL season saw two teams in a “Prisoner’s Dilemma.”
Five AFC teams were fighting for two open wildcard spots in the NFL playoffs going into the final week. By the Sunday Night game, the Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts were already eliminated from contention, leaving the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders in a very unique situation. Whoever wins the game would make the playoffs with the Pittsburgh Steelers; however, if they tie the game, they both make the playoffs. After late-game heroics by Chargers Quarterback Justin Herbert, the game went to overtime. Fans everywhere anxiously watched to see if these teams would tie to both make the playoffs. This game was a classic example of the Prisoner’s Dilemma.
The Prisoner’s Dilemma describes a situation where two players acting in their self-interests would result in a non-optimal outcome for both parties. The case is shown in the chart below:
This chart shows two prisoners in an interrogation room separated from each other after committing a robbery. Ideally, each prisoner would like the shortest prison sentence for themselves. Although Prisoner 1 (1) cannot be sure what Prisoner 2 (2) will do, he knows that confessing gives him the best outcome when 2 confesses – getting five years rather than ten – and also when 2 remains silent – getting zero jail time compared to one year. 2 will also reach this conclusion through the same thought process. So, the solution would seem that each prisoner should confess and take five years of prison.
Let’s look at this chart in the context of the Chargers vs. Raiders overtime.
Logic says the Chargers and Raiders should take the safest option by trying to secure a playoff spot for both teams. Like the Prisoner’s Dilemma, both parties do not cooperate, and each gets one year of prison time; the two teams did not come together to tie. The Chargers and Raiders did not want to run the risk of not trying and had the other team beat them. In the end, the Raiders came up victorious and made the playoffs.
Sources:
WSJ: How an NFL Game Became a Prisoner’s Dilemma
LinkedIn: The NFL just dished up a great example of Game Theory