Game Theory predicts an potential unsatisfying end to the Ukrainian conflict
Game Theory is the study of models that present strategies and the potential outcomes that arise. It models conflicts, dilemmas (most famously the Prisoner’s Dilemma), and other scenarios. (Wikipedia, 2022) As such, game theory can outline the Ukrainian crisis. Late February 2022 marked the escalation of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war when Russian forces invaded mainland Ukraine. Since then, there have been more conflicts and international attention towards the area.
Peace efforts have been made throughout the conflict to propose a fair deal for both countries. A 15-point peace plan draft highlights the compromises that both sides should agree on. The plan includes a ceasefire, Russian troop withdrawal from Kyiv, Ukraine promising not to join NATO, and hosting foreign military bases on its territory. (Seddon, 2022) Peace could be accomplished if both countries recall their forces. However, this is only theoretical. Putin has shown no signs of de-escalation. Therefore, it would not be safe for Ukraine to decrease its armed forces. The conflict is an iteration of the Prisoner’s Dilemma where there is an ideal result, but the risk of deviation prevents either party from committing to achieve that result. In this context, the ideal result is the end of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict which could be accomplished by a ceasefire, but the risk of the opponent deviating and attacking is too great.
As of right now, both countries have reached Nash equilibrium. Putin’s ambition to invade Ukraine has led Ukraine to defend itself, the best strategy against Russian attack. Additionally, the nature of this conflict exacerbates the strategies. This is a zero-sum strategy where one country’s win is another’s loss. Russia’s goal of preventing Ukraine from western influence has dictated the extreme actions it has and will take. (Hadfield, 2022)
As with most international conflicts, peace is nuanced and complicated. Both sides have contrasting goals that affect the current Nash equilibrium of continuing their attack/defense as long as they can. To change that, there needs to be a novel perceived victory that suits both sides. Unfortunately, that is not fair to Ukraine which Russia subjected to warfare.
Sources:
- https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-what-game-theory-can-tell-us-about-how-negotiations-might-go-179784
- https://www.ft.com/content/7b341e46-d375-4817-be67-802b7fa77ef1
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory