Game theory and the recent China-Taiwan conflict
https://blog.forumias.com/what-game-theory-tells-us-about-china-taiwan-face-off/
The blog post “What game theory tells us about China-Taiwan face-off” analyzes the recent China-Taiwan tension by considering both China and Taiwan as players of the game, and later, analyzes the conflict by including the US as the third player. China has long claimed that Taiwan is a part of its territory while Taiwan is a self-governing country. The conflict can be traced back to the 19th century. On August 2, Nancy Pelosi, the US House of Representatives Speaker, visited Taiwan. Her trip then triggered huge social media outrage in China, with Chinese users protesting against and criticizing Pelosi’s act. Following the visit, the Chinese military launched military exercises around Taiwan Strait.
What is interesting about game theory in this particular event is that this game can have two or three players. While there are only two players – in this case, China and Taiwan – there would not be a nash equilibrium or dominant strategy for both countries due to the imbalance of military powers (which is the reason why China is showcasing its power through military exercise), and, according to the article, China would be better-off no matter what strategies both sides adopt. Thus, using optimal strategy is the major goal of both countries. The entry of the third player – the United States – would change the game. The game would be harder to predict and, possibly, there will be a dominant strategy and Nash equilibrium, according to the article. Thus, by using game theory to analyze the conflict, we conclude that to not make things more complicated, the United States should not enter the game. Moreover, thinking from another perspective, since this is a conflict with a such long history, China and Taiwan should find a way for themselves to maintain peace in the future without any intervention from foreign forces.